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Thursday, 29 September 11
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS MID-WEEK, FURTHER DROP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ON CHINA HOLIDAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market, as reflected by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) retreated by 0.36% yesterday reaching 1,920 points, with the Capesize segment suffering the main losses. The Baltic Capesize Index (BPI) was down by 1.51% yesterday, ending the session at 3,268 points. By contrast, the Panamax segment fared much better, rising by 1.02% to reach 1,681 points.

According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Fearnley’s, “a psychological barrier seems to kick in every time spot levels for the capesize segment climb close to usd 30k. A robust strengthening on high volume is turning into a soft slide as activity cools down and nervousness spread. Despite last few days´ developments, average daily earnings are still up 12% w-o-w at usd 28k, and fundamental parametres still appear robust for transatlantic and pacific trades. Period activity has been fair on the back of paper support - most recently exemplified by 2 x 206kdwt newcastlemax NBs delivering Feb+April 2012 for about 4 years to major energy producers at usd 18k, 175kdwt/built 2010 delivering Japan early Oct done for 4-6 months at usd 19k and also 176kdwt/built 2010 delivering N.China early Oct for 4-6 months at usd 18k” said Fearnley’s.

In a separate report, commenting on the Capesize market, Piraeus-based shipbroker Shiptrade Services said that “the Atlantic market was relatively active, especially for prompt positions. Rates increased significantly, and at week’s closing fixtures reported at USD 33.000 per day Transatlantic round, while on the Front haul trade, fixtures reported at USD 50.000 per day. On the Tubarao/Qingdao trade, levels followed the same trend, and eventually concluded at USD 27.00pmt. Activity in the Pacific basin was even stronger than in the Atlantic. Cargo volume increased as new cargoes emerged from S.Africa, and India, but rates for pacific round voyage remained at same levels, i.e USD 24.000 per day. On the Australia/China trade, the iron ore majors covered about 15 vessels at levels close to USD 11.50pmt” said Shiptrade.

Meanwhile, according to Fearnley’s “the Panamax market started this week on a quiet note with only USG fronthaul giving some fuel to the levels. In the Atlantic the market is firming up, tighter with tonnage and some fresh minerals and grains requirements entering the market. TA rounds are now fetching ard usd 14,500 while some claim to have seen usd 16k for the shorter Baltic rounds. The fronthauls closer to mid 20´s with additional premium for shorter trips via Aden. In the Pacific activity is slowing down in all areas. Some analysts warn that China ´s emergency coal reserve provision is too small, and they might pick up the pase they had earlier on Indonesian coal. Mid week the Pac rounds are being fixed at ard usd 11k while the backhauls are getting ard usd 4,500. The period market has shown some activity with a few short period fixtures in the mid 12k range. With the coming holidays in China activity and levels could suffer next week” mentioned the shipbroker.

Shiptrade’s comment on the Panamax market was that there were not many fresh enquiries, combined with prompt tonnage building up, and rates sliding. “In the Atlantic basin we saw plenty of fixtures but rates didn’t manage to increase, as there were not so many fresh enquiries, especially for Transatlantic round. At week’s closing, rates for Transatlantic round concluded at USD 14.000 per day, while on the Front haul trade rates declined at USD 24.000 per day, with the majority of cargoes coming from USG. Pacific remained a bit quiet with not many enquiries in the market, and many prompt vessels looking for suitable cargoes. Rates declined, and at week’s closing, rates for Pacific round concluded around USD 11.000 – 11.500per day basis N.China delivery, or close to USD 13.000per day basis S.China – S.E.Asia delivery. Rates for trips Ex NOPAC concluded at levels around USD 10.500 – 11.500per day basis N.china/Japan range for BPI type vessel (M/V Eleftheria 76.134/01’), concluded Shiptrade.

Yesterday, Commodore Research & Consultancy issued an update on the state of coal stockpiles at the port of Qinhuangdao, China’s largest coal port, which have come under a large amount of pressure as we have anticipated. “At present, stockpiles stand at approximately 5.1 million tons, 2.2mt (-30%) less than at the start of the month. The stockpiles have come under a large amount of pressure as maintenance to China’s coal dedicated Daqin Railway (which stretches from coal-rich western China to Qinhuangdao) has coincided with robust demand for thermal coal and electricity On Tuesday September 20th, coal stockpiles at Qinhuangdao stood about 7.1mt. Maintenance to the Daqin Railway, which began on Wednesday September 21st, has resulted in the line being down for approximately 3 hours each day. The 12-day period of maintenance is scheduled to end on Monday October 3rd. Going forward, we expect that the Daqin Railway will transport 30-33mt of coal in September, which would be moderately lower than the 36.94mt of coal that was transported in August. We anticipate Qinhuangdao coal stockpiles will remain below 7mt during at least the next two weeks, which is likely to lead to a continued increase in Chinese thermal coal fixtures (Chinese thermal coal fixtures have already begun to increase this week). Regional thermal coal import prices also remain very attractive compared with Chinese domestic thermal coal prices” concluded Commodore.
Source:
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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