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Tuesday, 20 September 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOSING ITS EDGE, RETREATING AT THE START OF THE WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


After a surge during the past couple of weeks, which saw Capesize earnings boosted and the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) reaching levels of year high and close to 2,000 points, it seems that the signal was given late last week and early this week for a swift retreat. Yesterday, the BDI, the dry bulk market’s benchmark was down by 2.76% to 1,764 points, hot on the heels of last Friday’s fall. The biggest fall was recorded in the Capesize segment, with the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) losing 5.35% to end at 2,847 points. The Panamax market meanwhile was also down, but by a far less aggressive 0.69% to 1,734 (Baltic Panamax Index).

According to the latest weekly report from Paris-based shipbroker Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS), “bulk rates continued to rise in the early part of last week but a sharp correction on Friday saw all sizes lose points, most notably in the Cape segment which fell nearly 260 points. The drop ended seven consecutive week-on-week gains for the Capes. Overall the BDI finished the week at 1,814 points, a 1% drop on last week, while the BCI and BHI were also in the red, finishing at 3,008 points (-5.6%) and 677 (-0.9%) respectively. The Panamaxes and Supras showed gains however rising to 1,746 points (+3.6%) and 1,446 points (+3.2%). In the newbuilding market, we note a sharp slowdown in ordering activity this year, with just 32m deadweight of dry bulk tonnage placed, around half the amount contracted at this stage last year. Orders continue to tick over, due in part to the relatively low newbuild prices on offer, with one Chinese yard offering a rumoured $30m for a kamasarmax. However, the head of Jiangsu-based New Century Shipbuilding claimed this week such low prices would only be available for another 6 months or so as yards would soon be forced to refuse ‘at cost’ business” said BRS.

Commenting on the Capesize market it said that “despite a good start to the week, Capesize rates showed a sharp decline by Friday, with the market posting its first weekly fall in 7 weeks. Again the Atlantic showed greater firmness, losing around 4% on the main routes, while Aus-China and Bra-China saw declines around 6-7%. It was a mixed bag of news for the market, with the mining companies taking plenty of tonnage in the Pacific. However paper prices started to drop as early as Wednesday which appeared to have a knock-on effect on the physical. After trading at $23,700 last Friday, October FFA prices have now dropped to $19,200 per day and November to around $16,500. On Monday the BCI dropped another 160 points and the 4TC was recorded at just over $23,000.

Regarding the Panamax market, the shipbroker’s report said that it increased overall by $500 per day on the 4TC average. “This positive trend mainly came from the Atlantic basin where the USG grain fronthaul cargoes started to be marketed, leading to a decrease in the open tonnage position (although still important); the fronthaul route gained $1,000 per day to close at $22,500 per day. The TA round activity was however quieter with ships fixing in the low $14,000s per day. In the Pacific the market kept stable at very close to $14,000 for the Nopac round and the number of ships decreased in the area. Out of India, the monsoon will be over within 2 weeks which should lead to an increase in iron ore exports. The Goa/China route was paying $14 pmt, 50 cents better than a week ago. On the short period front, the numbers were topping during the week and PMX LME were fixed at around mid $14,500 per day, $500 below that a week ago” said the shipbroker.

It went on to mention that “Supramaxes were well in demand except in India where rains were still ongoing. The Monsoon is expected to end during the next few weeks which might result in more activity there as well. But owners can hardly complain about other regions. The East has been quite active after the holidays in the beginning of the week. Mid/high teens are achievable for an index Supramax for Indonesia/India coal business. We shall see if that remains the case, should fixing activity in India really increase. USG/China rates are now hovering around low $32/33,000s for bigger units while a TESS 52’ is still worth around $20,000 for a trip out with delivery West Africa.

The Handysize segment shows a mixed picture with not much good news for owners in the Atlantic. A lack of sugar cargoes caused rates to continue to decline in ECSA. A modern 28,000 dwt is now fixable in the low teens aps Brazil to Skaw/Passero. Even worse news emerged from the USG where two relatively modern 28,000 dwt vessels were reportedly fixed at below $10,000 aps for trips within the Atlantic. All the while, in the Far East demand supported higher rates and much more period interest as well. Modern 32,000 dwt vessels are being negotiated for short period around $13,000 with delivery SE Asia” concluded the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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