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Thursday, 08 September 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RALLY COMES TO AN END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


As was widely expected by analysts and shipbrokers alike, the latest rally of the dry bulk market came to a halt yesterday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) posting its first fall in five sessions, ending down by 1.30% to 1,744 points, thus retreating for a year high of 1,767 points. The Capesize market which led the gains in the previous weeks, reaching its highest level since December of last year, was the main loser yesterday, with the Baltic Capesize Index dropping by 2.39% on the day to 2,938 points. Capesize earnings had previously reached average daily earnings of $24,575.  Still though, all other dry bulk shipping segments were on a high yesterday, with the Panamax market gaining 0.73% to reach 1.657 points (Baltic Panamax Index).

Still, already since yesterday shipbrokers had been doubtful about whether this latest surge would be sustainable. George Lazaridis, head of research with shipbroker Intermodal was quoted by Reuters as saying that “many have been sceptical about the whole recovery process. Essentially it has been the capes none of the others (ship segments) have shown any major recovery. There were much more (capesize) cargoes and fixtures reported but there are also so many vessels working around these areas. It is doubtful that rates can continue on for too long” said Mr. Lazaridis.

Commenting on the Capesize market, shipbroker Fearnley’s said yesterday in its weekly report that “after a strong rise in the market towards the end of last week, this week started with definite signs of strength. This was due on the back of a very tight September market. Presently the pressure is off September positions and both basins have fallen. The West Australia market has fallen from USD 10.90 level to USD 10.25, and the Brazil to China market has fallen from upper USD 27.00 to about USD 25.00. Sentiment is for a further correction of the market. The T/A market is still firm as continued tight tonnage supply seems to be the norm. On the period front there has been a significant rise in what charterers are willing to pay for early vessels, and there is renewed confidence with vessels being fixed for 2 or more years at improved levels. Today you can secure USD 17-18k short period” said Fearnley’s.

On the Panamax front it said that “western Hemisphere is suffering from a downturn vs Eastern Hemisphere still riding on an upturn. The scenario is not (only) from world economy but also from the Panamax freight levels this week. Spot positions in the Atlantic struggle due to lack of sufficient requirements and rates are sliding towards 13k/day for T/A rounds. Fronthaul business is limited with some minerals and grain cargoes fixable around the 21k mark. In the Far East lack of prompt tonnage in certain areas have given fuel to the market, supported by a rising Cape market. Nopac rounds achievable above 14k/day. Short period activity loosing some of its recent steam in the mid 13 range as the forward market took a breather early week” Fearnley’s said. In a separate report, Shiptrade Services mentioned that “the week began quietly rates softened just a bit across both basins. In the Atlantic region, we witnessed a lack of fresh inquires, combined with a growing supply of tonnage availability, which pushed rates downwards. Rates for Transatlantic round began from USD 14.750 per day and eventually concluded at USD 14.500per day towards weeks closing. On the Fronthaul trade rates declined at levels around USD 21.500 per day at weeks closing. The Pacific market started quietly as an effect of holidays in Singapore. Indonesia was quieter in terms of volume of fixing and rates for Pacific round drifted close to USD 10-11.000per day for vessels open N.China, or USD 12.000per day basis passing Taiwan. Rates for trips Ex Nopac increased at rates around USD 13.000 per day basis N.china/Japan range (M/V Nikolaos 75500/09)” commented Shiptrade Services.

It went on to analyze the Supramax market saying that “After two weeks with increased activity, market seems losing steam. In the Atlantic basin, the USG region is slowing down with fewer cargoes emerging the market and rates started dropping. Supramaxes reported fixed at USD high 20’s per day for trip to F.East. On the ECSA, rates for trips back to Continent/Mediterranean were at USD 14-15.000 basis W.Africa delivery, while for trips to F.East some fixtures reported at USD 20.000per day. In the pacific, market drifted as a result of the Ramadan holidays in Indonesia. Many Owners lowered their ideas in order to cover their vessels. Nickel ore parcels were scarce, but there were some coal parcels with the majority of them destined to India. Rates for trips to India were at USD 11-12.000per day, while we saw reported a modern Supramax fixed at USD 10.000per day basis delivery Karaikal, for 1 trip via Indonesia back to India. Vessels open in N.China/ Japan were more interested for NOPAC but rates were close to USD 9.000 per day” concluded the shipbroker.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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