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Tuesday, 06 September 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED COAL EXPORT BAN MAY HAVE IMPACT ON THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com - This is a special interview about Indonesian proposed coal export ban by 2014, with Mr. Dipesh Dipu, Director of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, India.
The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5700 kcal/kg on air dried basis in value.
As of now Indonesia is producing around 150 million tons of coal with calorific value below 5700 GAD (according to chairman of Indonesian coal mining association). However by 2014, there are possibilities the total production of below 5700 GAD coal may reach more than 200 million per annum.
Will Indonesian coal export ban impact on the Indian fuel requirements?
The earlier grade of coal that was being considered for proposed ban has GCV of 5100 kcal/kg of less (adb), which can be comparable to 3800-4200 kcal/kg (arb) domestic coal available in India. This grade of coal has found favor in India primarily due to likely price advantage but economics of power generation based on such grade of imported coal may be a suspect. This considering that such grades of coal from Indonesia typically have high moisture content, which makes transportation cost per unit of energy generated higher. The quantum of the low grade of coal (<5100 kcal/kg adb) procured from Indonesia is likely to remain relatively low.
However, if the new definition of low grade coal is applied (<5700 kcal/kg adb), it may be reasonable to believe that such a ban may have impact on the Indian power sector as volumes in this grade of coal are expected to rise in the proportion of coal exports to India. Several of the acquisitions made by Indian power generation companies in Indonesia have been in coal blocks that will produce coal of this grade, and a blanket ban on the exports can jeopardize power plant development in India.
On the other hand, the domestic Indonesian market may not be prepared to consume all the coal mined of this grade in view of the power generation capacity addition plans in Indonesia. In such a case, the coal mine development is likely to be deferred. The Indonesian law makers may need to reconsider domestic market demand, investment climate in coal sector and impact of the legislation on the export revenues.
What is the alternative source for Indian power industry if the proposed coal export ban come into effect by 2014?
Indian power generation companies have been forced to look out for coal assets abroad due to the investment and regulatory environment within the country. India boasts of more than 110 billion tonnes of coal reserves, which largely fall within a 300 meters of depth. If the regulatory and investment environment is amended to allow greater participation of private sector Indian dependence on imports will be reduced.
However, for imports, India will continue to look at Indonesia, South Africa, Australia and newer destinations like Mozambique and Columbia. But these sources also have constraints, domestic demands in South Africa is likely to restrict quantum jump in exports out of South Africa. Indonesia has also proposed domestic market obligations. Mozambique may have infrastructure constraints for large volumes of coal being transported from Tete province to ports of Maputo, Ncala or Beira. Australian coal is of high quality but may have higher costs of mining and transport.
What would be the additional cost if Indian consumers switch their sourcing origin from Indonesia?
Indonesia has competitive advantage due to its geographical closeness. However, on a per tonne basis, assuming comparable quality, costs of transport may make marginal difference when compared with South Africa and Mozambique.
When compared to Australian coal, due to the high quality, cost of energy may well be comparable even though shipping costs are higher. Between Indonesian coal (5500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 90 per tonne) and Australian coal (6500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 120 per tonne), indicative variable cost difference of power generation may be about Indian Rupees 0.20 to 0.30 per kWh (electricity unit) in favor of Indonesian coal.
Will it affect Indian economy growth or this coal export ban is ignorable as India can easily identify alternative sources of fuel?
The magnitude of growth in power generation in India will necessarily mean that coal will remain the mainstay. Natural gas has had issues of availability. Nuclear plant development is facing socio-political challenge in view of the risks of technology failure. Development of hydel power has also faced issues of land acquisition, rehabilitation & resettlement apart from the technical issues of hydro-geological features. Renewable sources such as solar and wind generation are still projected to constitute a small portion of India power generation mix. Identifying an alternative source that can match coal in its accessibility, availability and affordability in the context of scale of capacity addition required in India is a challenge.
What is the Indian government's role on this issue, whether government has to come out with the solution such as easing Indian mining and environment law, open up mining for foreigners, G2G arrangement, etc…?
There is a need to look at domestic sources with pro-active and constructive approach and make all necessary legal and statutory amendments that make the resources available and mineable. Easing the regulations may not be one of such measures but making those regulations work in sync with each other in a time bound and predictable manner must certainly be.
There is certainly a case for opening the domestic coal sector for private participation, including independent miners, and for foreign participation so that newer technology and enhanced scale of operations are implemented in India. The regulation also needs to permit risk capital to come in for prospecting and exploration.
For imports the G2G relations can be leveraged to secure coal assets. India has good relationship with Indonesia and has also signed a tax treaty with Mozambique in 2010 which will facilitate investments. Government may also engage with these countries to ease exports to India and extend fiscal support to coal mining companies investing in mining and associated infrastructure development.
About Dipesh Dipu
Dipesh Dipu works as Director with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Pvt. Ltd in the Energy and Resources consulting practice of the firm and anchors the Firm’s initiative in the mining and metals sectors.
He is a mining engineering graduate from Indian School of Mines and is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). He has also done executive program in business management from Indian Institute of Management Calcutta. Dipesh has recently been awarded the Abheraj Baldota Gold Medal for the Young Mining Engineer of the Year 2007 by the Mining Engineers’ Association of India in recognition of his contributions in the improvement of mining industry in India.
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Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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