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Tuesday, 06 September 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED COAL EXPORT BAN MAY HAVE IMPACT ON THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com - This is a special interview about Indonesian proposed coal export ban by 2014, with Mr. Dipesh Dipu, Director of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, India.
The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5700 kcal/kg on air dried basis in value.
As of now Indonesia is producing around 150 million tons of coal with calorific value below 5700 GAD (according to chairman of Indonesian coal mining association). However by 2014, there are possibilities the total production of below 5700 GAD coal may reach more than 200 million per annum.
Will Indonesian coal export ban impact on the Indian fuel requirements?
The earlier grade of coal that was being considered for proposed ban has GCV of 5100 kcal/kg of less (adb), which can be comparable to 3800-4200 kcal/kg (arb) domestic coal available in India. This grade of coal has found favor in India primarily due to likely price advantage but economics of power generation based on such grade of imported coal may be a suspect. This considering that such grades of coal from Indonesia typically have high moisture content, which makes transportation cost per unit of energy generated higher. The quantum of the low grade of coal (<5100 kcal/kg adb) procured from Indonesia is likely to remain relatively low.
However, if the new definition of low grade coal is applied (<5700 kcal/kg adb), it may be reasonable to believe that such a ban may have impact on the Indian power sector as volumes in this grade of coal are expected to rise in the proportion of coal exports to India. Several of the acquisitions made by Indian power generation companies in Indonesia have been in coal blocks that will produce coal of this grade, and a blanket ban on the exports can jeopardize power plant development in India.
On the other hand, the domestic Indonesian market may not be prepared to consume all the coal mined of this grade in view of the power generation capacity addition plans in Indonesia. In such a case, the coal mine development is likely to be deferred. The Indonesian law makers may need to reconsider domestic market demand, investment climate in coal sector and impact of the legislation on the export revenues.
What is the alternative source for Indian power industry if the proposed coal export ban come into effect by 2014?
Indian power generation companies have been forced to look out for coal assets abroad due to the investment and regulatory environment within the country. India boasts of more than 110 billion tonnes of coal reserves, which largely fall within a 300 meters of depth. If the regulatory and investment environment is amended to allow greater participation of private sector Indian dependence on imports will be reduced.
However, for imports, India will continue to look at Indonesia, South Africa, Australia and newer destinations like Mozambique and Columbia. But these sources also have constraints, domestic demands in South Africa is likely to restrict quantum jump in exports out of South Africa. Indonesia has also proposed domestic market obligations. Mozambique may have infrastructure constraints for large volumes of coal being transported from Tete province to ports of Maputo, Ncala or Beira. Australian coal is of high quality but may have higher costs of mining and transport.
What would be the additional cost if Indian consumers switch their sourcing origin from Indonesia?
Indonesia has competitive advantage due to its geographical closeness. However, on a per tonne basis, assuming comparable quality, costs of transport may make marginal difference when compared with South Africa and Mozambique.
When compared to Australian coal, due to the high quality, cost of energy may well be comparable even though shipping costs are higher. Between Indonesian coal (5500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 90 per tonne) and Australian coal (6500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 120 per tonne), indicative variable cost difference of power generation may be about Indian Rupees 0.20 to 0.30 per kWh (electricity unit) in favor of Indonesian coal.
Will it affect Indian economy growth or this coal export ban is ignorable as India can easily identify alternative sources of fuel?
The magnitude of growth in power generation in India will necessarily mean that coal will remain the mainstay. Natural gas has had issues of availability. Nuclear plant development is facing socio-political challenge in view of the risks of technology failure. Development of hydel power has also faced issues of land acquisition, rehabilitation & resettlement apart from the technical issues of hydro-geological features. Renewable sources such as solar and wind generation are still projected to constitute a small portion of India power generation mix. Identifying an alternative source that can match coal in its accessibility, availability and affordability in the context of scale of capacity addition required in India is a challenge.
What is the Indian government's role on this issue, whether government has to come out with the solution such as easing Indian mining and environment law, open up mining for foreigners, G2G arrangement, etc…?
There is a need to look at domestic sources with pro-active and constructive approach and make all necessary legal and statutory amendments that make the resources available and mineable. Easing the regulations may not be one of such measures but making those regulations work in sync with each other in a time bound and predictable manner must certainly be.
There is certainly a case for opening the domestic coal sector for private participation, including independent miners, and for foreign participation so that newer technology and enhanced scale of operations are implemented in India. The regulation also needs to permit risk capital to come in for prospecting and exploration.
For imports the G2G relations can be leveraged to secure coal assets. India has good relationship with Indonesia and has also signed a tax treaty with Mozambique in 2010 which will facilitate investments. Government may also engage with these countries to ease exports to India and extend fiscal support to coal mining companies investing in mining and associated infrastructure development.
About Dipesh Dipu
Dipesh Dipu works as Director with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Pvt. Ltd in the Energy and Resources consulting practice of the firm and anchors the Firm’s initiative in the mining and metals sectors.
He is a mining engineering graduate from Indian School of Mines and is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). He has also done executive program in business management from Indian Institute of Management Calcutta. Dipesh has recently been awarded the Abheraj Baldota Gold Medal for the Young Mining Engineer of the Year 2007 by the Mining Engineers’ Association of India in recognition of his contributions in the improvement of mining industry in India.
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Wednesday, 13 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The EU governments in an effort to face their economic crisis individually are facing lack of political cohesion. This reflects back to each econom ...
Tuesday, 12 May 15
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COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 lost week over week and month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ 0 ...
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Monday, 11 May 15
DRY BULK CARRIER ORDERS CRASH TO A TWENTY YEAR LOW - CLARKSONS
In the last four months dry bulk orders have fallen to 0.4m dwt per month, the lowest level since the 1990s. This is a massive 98% reduction from t ...
Monday, 11 May 15
HBA PRICE DIPS FURTHER; LOWEST RECORDED SINCE JANUARY 2009
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 61.08 per MT in May ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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