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Tuesday, 06 September 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED COAL EXPORT BAN MAY HAVE IMPACT ON THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com - This is a special interview about Indonesian proposed coal export ban by 2014, with Mr. Dipesh Dipu, Director of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, India.
The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5700 kcal/kg on air dried basis in value.
As of now Indonesia is producing around 150 million tons of coal with calorific value below 5700 GAD (according to chairman of Indonesian coal mining association). However by 2014, there are possibilities the total production of below 5700 GAD coal may reach more than 200 million per annum.
Will Indonesian coal export ban impact on the Indian fuel requirements?
The earlier grade of coal that was being considered for proposed ban has GCV of 5100 kcal/kg of less (adb), which can be comparable to 3800-4200 kcal/kg (arb) domestic coal available in India. This grade of coal has found favor in India primarily due to likely price advantage but economics of power generation based on such grade of imported coal may be a suspect. This considering that such grades of coal from Indonesia typically have high moisture content, which makes transportation cost per unit of energy generated higher. The quantum of the low grade of coal (<5100 kcal/kg adb) procured from Indonesia is likely to remain relatively low.
However, if the new definition of low grade coal is applied (<5700 kcal/kg adb), it may be reasonable to believe that such a ban may have impact on the Indian power sector as volumes in this grade of coal are expected to rise in the proportion of coal exports to India. Several of the acquisitions made by Indian power generation companies in Indonesia have been in coal blocks that will produce coal of this grade, and a blanket ban on the exports can jeopardize power plant development in India.
On the other hand, the domestic Indonesian market may not be prepared to consume all the coal mined of this grade in view of the power generation capacity addition plans in Indonesia. In such a case, the coal mine development is likely to be deferred. The Indonesian law makers may need to reconsider domestic market demand, investment climate in coal sector and impact of the legislation on the export revenues.
What is the alternative source for Indian power industry if the proposed coal export ban come into effect by 2014?
Indian power generation companies have been forced to look out for coal assets abroad due to the investment and regulatory environment within the country. India boasts of more than 110 billion tonnes of coal reserves, which largely fall within a 300 meters of depth. If the regulatory and investment environment is amended to allow greater participation of private sector Indian dependence on imports will be reduced.
However, for imports, India will continue to look at Indonesia, South Africa, Australia and newer destinations like Mozambique and Columbia. But these sources also have constraints, domestic demands in South Africa is likely to restrict quantum jump in exports out of South Africa. Indonesia has also proposed domestic market obligations. Mozambique may have infrastructure constraints for large volumes of coal being transported from Tete province to ports of Maputo, Ncala or Beira. Australian coal is of high quality but may have higher costs of mining and transport.
What would be the additional cost if Indian consumers switch their sourcing origin from Indonesia?
Indonesia has competitive advantage due to its geographical closeness. However, on a per tonne basis, assuming comparable quality, costs of transport may make marginal difference when compared with South Africa and Mozambique.
When compared to Australian coal, due to the high quality, cost of energy may well be comparable even though shipping costs are higher. Between Indonesian coal (5500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 90 per tonne) and Australian coal (6500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 120 per tonne), indicative variable cost difference of power generation may be about Indian Rupees 0.20 to 0.30 per kWh (electricity unit) in favor of Indonesian coal.
Will it affect Indian economy growth or this coal export ban is ignorable as India can easily identify alternative sources of fuel?
The magnitude of growth in power generation in India will necessarily mean that coal will remain the mainstay. Natural gas has had issues of availability. Nuclear plant development is facing socio-political challenge in view of the risks of technology failure. Development of hydel power has also faced issues of land acquisition, rehabilitation & resettlement apart from the technical issues of hydro-geological features. Renewable sources such as solar and wind generation are still projected to constitute a small portion of India power generation mix. Identifying an alternative source that can match coal in its accessibility, availability and affordability in the context of scale of capacity addition required in India is a challenge.
What is the Indian government's role on this issue, whether government has to come out with the solution such as easing Indian mining and environment law, open up mining for foreigners, G2G arrangement, etc…?
There is a need to look at domestic sources with pro-active and constructive approach and make all necessary legal and statutory amendments that make the resources available and mineable. Easing the regulations may not be one of such measures but making those regulations work in sync with each other in a time bound and predictable manner must certainly be.
There is certainly a case for opening the domestic coal sector for private participation, including independent miners, and for foreign participation so that newer technology and enhanced scale of operations are implemented in India. The regulation also needs to permit risk capital to come in for prospecting and exploration.
For imports the G2G relations can be leveraged to secure coal assets. India has good relationship with Indonesia and has also signed a tax treaty with Mozambique in 2010 which will facilitate investments. Government may also engage with these countries to ease exports to India and extend fiscal support to coal mining companies investing in mining and associated infrastructure development.
About Dipesh Dipu
Dipesh Dipu works as Director with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Pvt. Ltd in the Energy and Resources consulting practice of the firm and anchors the Firm’s initiative in the mining and metals sectors.
He is a mining engineering graduate from Indian School of Mines and is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). He has also done executive program in business management from Indian Institute of Management Calcutta. Dipesh has recently been awarded the Abheraj Baldota Gold Medal for the Young Mining Engineer of the Year 2007 by the Mining Engineers’ Association of India in recognition of his contributions in the improvement of mining industry in India.
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Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
Wednesday, 28 September 16
WITHOUT A DOUBT FREIGHT RATES HAVE MOVED UP A BIT TO HEALTHIER LEVELS - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching Q4, it is interesting to perform a review of the last nine months with respect to the second-hand prices of Supramax and Pana ...
Tuesday, 27 September 16
THE CAPESIZE RATE OF INCREASE HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE, UP 39% W/W AND 123% MONTH TO DATE - ALLIED
The Dry bulk market has seen a rare shine in its performance as the capesize sector manages to rally at an unprecedented rate compared to its perfo ...
Monday, 26 September 16
COAL PRICES HAVE BEEN MOVING STEADILY HIGHER AFTER YEARS OF DECLINE
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 26 September 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRM; ALL SEGMENTS WERE UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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