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Tuesday, 06 September 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED COAL EXPORT BAN MAY HAVE IMPACT ON THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com - This is a special interview about Indonesian proposed coal export ban by 2014, with Mr. Dipesh Dipu, Director of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, India.
The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5700 kcal/kg on air dried basis in value.
As of now Indonesia is producing around 150 million tons of coal with calorific value below 5700 GAD (according to chairman of Indonesian coal mining association). However by 2014, there are possibilities the total production of below 5700 GAD coal may reach more than 200 million per annum.
Will Indonesian coal export ban impact on the Indian fuel requirements?
The earlier grade of coal that was being considered for proposed ban has GCV of 5100 kcal/kg of less (adb), which can be comparable to 3800-4200 kcal/kg (arb) domestic coal available in India. This grade of coal has found favor in India primarily due to likely price advantage but economics of power generation based on such grade of imported coal may be a suspect. This considering that such grades of coal from Indonesia typically have high moisture content, which makes transportation cost per unit of energy generated higher. The quantum of the low grade of coal (<5100 kcal/kg adb) procured from Indonesia is likely to remain relatively low.
However, if the new definition of low grade coal is applied (<5700 kcal/kg adb), it may be reasonable to believe that such a ban may have impact on the Indian power sector as volumes in this grade of coal are expected to rise in the proportion of coal exports to India. Several of the acquisitions made by Indian power generation companies in Indonesia have been in coal blocks that will produce coal of this grade, and a blanket ban on the exports can jeopardize power plant development in India.
On the other hand, the domestic Indonesian market may not be prepared to consume all the coal mined of this grade in view of the power generation capacity addition plans in Indonesia. In such a case, the coal mine development is likely to be deferred. The Indonesian law makers may need to reconsider domestic market demand, investment climate in coal sector and impact of the legislation on the export revenues.
What is the alternative source for Indian power industry if the proposed coal export ban come into effect by 2014?
Indian power generation companies have been forced to look out for coal assets abroad due to the investment and regulatory environment within the country. India boasts of more than 110 billion tonnes of coal reserves, which largely fall within a 300 meters of depth. If the regulatory and investment environment is amended to allow greater participation of private sector Indian dependence on imports will be reduced.
However, for imports, India will continue to look at Indonesia, South Africa, Australia and newer destinations like Mozambique and Columbia. But these sources also have constraints, domestic demands in South Africa is likely to restrict quantum jump in exports out of South Africa. Indonesia has also proposed domestic market obligations. Mozambique may have infrastructure constraints for large volumes of coal being transported from Tete province to ports of Maputo, Ncala or Beira. Australian coal is of high quality but may have higher costs of mining and transport.
What would be the additional cost if Indian consumers switch their sourcing origin from Indonesia?
Indonesia has competitive advantage due to its geographical closeness. However, on a per tonne basis, assuming comparable quality, costs of transport may make marginal difference when compared with South Africa and Mozambique.
When compared to Australian coal, due to the high quality, cost of energy may well be comparable even though shipping costs are higher. Between Indonesian coal (5500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 90 per tonne) and Australian coal (6500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 120 per tonne), indicative variable cost difference of power generation may be about Indian Rupees 0.20 to 0.30 per kWh (electricity unit) in favor of Indonesian coal.
Will it affect Indian economy growth or this coal export ban is ignorable as India can easily identify alternative sources of fuel?
The magnitude of growth in power generation in India will necessarily mean that coal will remain the mainstay. Natural gas has had issues of availability. Nuclear plant development is facing socio-political challenge in view of the risks of technology failure. Development of hydel power has also faced issues of land acquisition, rehabilitation & resettlement apart from the technical issues of hydro-geological features. Renewable sources such as solar and wind generation are still projected to constitute a small portion of India power generation mix. Identifying an alternative source that can match coal in its accessibility, availability and affordability in the context of scale of capacity addition required in India is a challenge.
What is the Indian government's role on this issue, whether government has to come out with the solution such as easing Indian mining and environment law, open up mining for foreigners, G2G arrangement, etc…?
There is a need to look at domestic sources with pro-active and constructive approach and make all necessary legal and statutory amendments that make the resources available and mineable. Easing the regulations may not be one of such measures but making those regulations work in sync with each other in a time bound and predictable manner must certainly be.
There is certainly a case for opening the domestic coal sector for private participation, including independent miners, and for foreign participation so that newer technology and enhanced scale of operations are implemented in India. The regulation also needs to permit risk capital to come in for prospecting and exploration.
For imports the G2G relations can be leveraged to secure coal assets. India has good relationship with Indonesia and has also signed a tax treaty with Mozambique in 2010 which will facilitate investments. Government may also engage with these countries to ease exports to India and extend fiscal support to coal mining companies investing in mining and associated infrastructure development.
About Dipesh Dipu
Dipesh Dipu works as Director with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Pvt. Ltd in the Energy and Resources consulting practice of the firm and anchors the Firm’s initiative in the mining and metals sectors.
He is a mining engineering graduate from Indian School of Mines and is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). He has also done executive program in business management from Indian Institute of Management Calcutta. Dipesh has recently been awarded the Abheraj Baldota Gold Medal for the Young Mining Engineer of the Year 2007 by the Mining Engineers’ Association of India in recognition of his contributions in the improvement of mining industry in India.
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Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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