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Friday, 19 August 11
INDIA IMPORTS LESS INDONESIAN COAL THAN CHINA IN JULY


COALspot.com - Indonesia shipped 31.30 Million tons of coal  in July 2011, up by 10.69 percent compared to June's export of about  28.27 million tons, Indonesian coal industry sources said.

China's Indonesian coal imports have jumped again drastically in July by 2.24 MMt compared to its June imports. Chinese's coal import from Indonesia in July was higher than India's imports from Indonesia.

India has imported only 6.48 million tons in July where’s China has imported about 10.48 MMt which was 4.00 million MT higher. 33.48% of total Indonesian coal exports have gone to China in July.

India was the largest Indonesian coal importer since January 2011 until April, followed by China and other asian countries. However, it lost its position to China since May 2011.

China is expected to import less coal in this month and coming months and may it return to market 4th quarter for more coal.

According to Indian coal minister,  Indian coal imports may be at 250 million tons per annum by 2016. Coal imports is unavoidable option for Indian utilities due to non availability of  economically viable coal from domestic mines.  However, according to Indian UMPPs, due to Indonesian government regulation that forces all coal producers must sell coal at government declared monthly prices, would cost them at least US$ 30 per ton higher than they previously budgeted.

"Implementation of this proposed new rule  by the Indonesian government ( I.e., the law mandates all coal producers to sell coal at government declared prices) will adversely impact all existing and future imported coal-based power plants in India, including UMPPs," Ashok Khurana, the Director General of the Association of Power Producers, said as reported by an Indian paper.

“The new Indonesian regulations, which stipulate benchmarking of coal prices to international market rates, are likely to increase the cost of imported coal. The impact on the tariff of such projects may vary, depending on the quality of imported coal and the fuel mix,” Pratik Prakashbapu Patil, minister of state for coal, said in a written reply to the Lok Sabha this week, an Indian media reported recently.

Another Indian large scale power producer said, “The new Indonesian coal policy will lead to a sharp escalation of coal prices to as high as 150 per cent, which could result in the project becoming unviable.” The UMPPs are looking for help from the power ministry to “intervene through an open dialogue with the Indonesian government and expeditiously resolve the coal price issue”.

However, an Indian analyst seen this issue from a different angle. 

According to Dipesh Dipu, director, at Deloitte, “When Indian companies invest in Indonesia, they tend to have the intent to sell coal at cost, so that Indonesian business unit remained at no or negligible profits. Taking a holistic view, however, the cash flows in an integrated Indonesian coal mining and Indian power generation unit after this regulation will continue to be similar, except that income taxes will be paid in Indonesia, and the cash flows will need to be brought on the books on Indian power project after paying taxes in Indonesia through appropriate and innovative business structuring,” mydigitalfc reported.

Indonesia has introduced bench mark pricing mechanism for its coal  since February 2010, and it has implemented for the domestic supplies as well as for export market. The pricing was done on a transparent way using four internationally accepted coal indices to generate monthly Indonesian coal reference prices for about 62 types of coal including 8 types of bench mark qualities.

The regulation also requires miners to report sales volumes, prices, and buyers every month to the government, allowing it to ensure that the rules are being followed. Violations can lead to revocation of mining permits. The price benchmark aims to prevent firms selling coal to affiliates at low prices to avoid taxes that hurts Indonesia's efforts to collect revenues from its massive commodity exports.

Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has set the August 2011 Indonesian Coal Reference Price for thermal coal at US$ 117.21 per ton per ton, which was 0.87 percent lesser than July 2011 price of US$ US$ 119.03 . Assessment basis of coal price reference was calculated considering coal with GCV (GAR)  6,322 kcal/kg, Total Moisture (arb) 8.00%, Total Sulphur (arb) 0.8%, Ash Content (arb) 15.00% and  delivery free on Board (FOB) Vessel basis  and applicable for spot contract, delivery between 1 – 31 August 2011.

However Indonesian coal producers were offering coal above than the August Bench mark price. The current coal Price is almost dead, commented an Indonesian coal producer as the prices of coal is flat or soft compared to previous months. However, he believes that, the prices will improve coming months.

According to Indian power industry analyst opined that  Indian UMPPs ( ultra-mega power project) suddenly caught in between as the concept of UMPP was implemented 4 to 5 years back. The large scale industrial houses in India  have bided and secured UMPP licenses based on the open market prices /long term coal contracts from Indonesian producers (I.e., pre regulated Indonesian market). Now that Indonesian coal reference price mechanism is in place all the UMPP's are seeking Indian government’s assistance in revising the Power Tariff of UMPP.

Now, the bankers who have funded the projects are bit worried about the rising Indonesian coal costs versus the power sales price which was pegged at pre-regulation prices, Indian banking industry sources said. Now, we need to see whether Indian Government allows the UMPPs to revise the power sale prices based on Indonesian coal reference price mechanism.

As such Indian cement and steel industries were used to buy coal from South Africa and Australia on index base pricing mechanism since last four to five years. in view of the attractive profit margin levels, entire Indonesian coal producers migrated to Index based pricing for coal contracts . “however still many of the Indian utilities and private consumers are still procuring the coal on firm delivered basis. This different platform of pricing method is creating lot of confusion in the Indian trade circles” an Indian trader commented.

79.93 percent of total coal exports in July shipped to China, India, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan respectively.

The coal export information within this article is provided by COALspot.com on an "as is" and "as available” basis. All details about, given in good faith, without guarantee. While every care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of information furnished in this article. COALspot.com shall be obliged if errors / omissions are brought to its notice for carrying out corrections in this article.



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