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Tuesday, 09 August 11
DRY BULK MARKET UNABLE TO FIND UPWARD MOMENTUM, SLUMPS AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


They same that what goes up must come down and nobody seems to have found a better application of this expression, than the beleguered dry bulk market, which has plunged to new lows yesterday, at 1,264 points, down by 0.32%, since the end of last week, when the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) had managed to edge forward by 3%, despite all other ship segments being traded further downwards. In fact, the Panamax market was down by 2% and so was the HandySize segment of the market. in the start of the week, the Capesize market went further down to 1,793 points, a fall of 0.61% on the day, while the panamax segment was marginally lower by 0.14% to 1,476 points.

According to the latest weekly report on the dry bulk market, issued by Paris-based shipbroker Barry Rogliano Salles, “in India the country’s  Supreme Court partially lifted an iron ore mining ban imposed last week in a key region of Karnataka state, allowing state-owned NMDC to mine up to 1m tonnes per month from 6 August. NMDC will start production from two of its existing mines located in the Bellary district. The Supreme Court had imposed an interim ban on July 29, citing environmental degradation. Many Indian steel companies have already been affected by the ban, with JSW Steel cutting capacity due to lack of supplies, while Tata Metaliks said it could shut its plant in Maharashtra state if supplies do not normalise” it said.

Referring to the Capesize market it mentioned that “it finally picked up this week after a month of declines. Moves by Rio Tinto to take up to 10 ships in the Pacific pushed rates up there 5%, and more cargos are expected in the coming weeks. The Atlantic was more varied, with Tubarao-Dunkirk rising 4%, but the fronthaul trade from Brazil-China barely shifted. Overall the BCI rose 3% to 1,804 points while the four time charter moved from 9,408 to 10,032 points, a rise of over 6.5%. This has not yet taken Cape operators into a safety zone however and there are still concerns over positive returns in a market with so many ships avilable. In the FFA market, there were also positive gains, with August/September and Q4 prices increasing by 5.1% and 2%.  However the positive sentiment faded somewhat by the end of the week, and the BCI fell 11 points” said BRS.

On the Panamax market it mentioned that “in the Atlantic, it was a quiet week overall, with reported fixtures remaining thin on the ground. Having said this, tonnage supply remained high and rates were under pressure due to limited fresh cargoes coming into the market. The 1A index declined by $425 (29/07/2011 – 08/08/2011), reflecting a continued bearish outlook, and prospects will remain this way unless we see a notable improvement in cargo volumes. For the Pacific, despite a slight improvement in cargo volumes at the beginning of the new week, overall activity remained muted with little fresh business to be had. The impact of many ballasters sailing away towards the Atlantic in recent weeks has merely slowed down the rate of decline on the 3A index, with levels hovering above $8,000 per day. The outlook appears relatively flat for the time being, however there is some hope that improved cargo volumes will spur rates on given that open tonnage is a touch tighter than in previous weeks.

There were very few period fixtures were reported this week, with rates remaining fairly consistent from the previous week” said the report. Finally the Supramax/Handy market “has been so unpredictable during the last few weeks that we noticed little or no change. The Supra index showed a steady - 5 point difference between Monday and Friday, while the Handies saw an insignificant drop of -1. We noted some grains, scrap and fertilizer cargoes out of the continent to Med, East Med and ECSA respectively. Handies were fixed at about $11,000 for trips from the Continent to North Africa, and about $14,000 to East.

Handymax saw slightly higher figures of about $15-16,000 for trips from continent to east Med/Black Sea range. The US Gulf maintained a steady flow with very firm rates. Supramax went at about $28,000 per day pro for trips to East Med and slightly higher figures of about $32,000 per day for Far East destinations. Handymax went for about $23,000 for trips to East Med. We saw more grain cargoes out of the Black Sea but this has still not yet had an impact on the market as Handymax went for about $10,000 per day for a trip from Emed to west Africa.

The south Atlantic market showed stronger numbers on the fronthaul as Handies went for about $17,000 Brazil-Far East voyages while Supras went at about $18,000 for trips via west Africa to Far East. The Far East market maintained a steady flow as Supras went at about $13,000 for China-Indo trips and about $12,000 for ships delivered in India trip via South Africa to China” concluded BRS.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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