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Wednesday, 03 August 11
DRY BULK MARKET SINKS TO THREE-MONTH LOWS, BUT CAPESIZES COULD TURN THINGS AROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market kept on falling this week, on the back of slow cargo demand amid the summer season. Yesterday, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark edged further down to 1,253 points, 0.24% lower on the day, but the big news could be found in the positive signs emerged in the Capesize segment. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) was up by 0.63% yesterday, which could be coincidental, but could also be the start of a tipping point to the market’s negative sentiment. Elsewhere, Panamaxes were still down by 0.8%, while supramaxes were also down by 0.16% to 1,252 points.

According to the latest weekly report from Paris-based shipbroker Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS), during the course of last week the BDI fell by 4.5%, mainly as a result of a 5% fall of the Capesize market. “In Japan the Institute of Energy Economics for Japan (IEEJ) reported that alternative energy imports would rise significantly if local authorities kept reactors shut after routine maintenance due to safety concerns after Fukushima. According to the IEEJ, power companies would boost run rates for existing coal plants to 85%, up from current levels of 80%. This would lead to an 8.65m tone increase in coal imports for the 2012/13 year, a near 10% increase on the previous year. By May 2012, all 54 of Japan’s commercial reactors could go off line if safety fears delay their restart after regular maintenance” said BRS

Referring on the Capesize segment the report said that “a 6% slip in the BCI and a $1,400 drop in the four time charter average Fridayto-Friday confirmed there was more softening in the market, with the biggest declines in the Atlantic market where, although tonnage remains relatively tight, sentiment is falling away. That said, TA rates were still around $10,000 per day, and Braz-China is still offering $19-$20 per tonne. In the paper market, Q4 rates have now fallen to $10,900 per day, although there is some expectation of a market improvement in Q1 2012 which is now trading around $11,100” it mentioned.

On the Panamax front “in the Atlantic the overall supply of tonnage remained high over the past week, with many ballasters arriving from the Pacific. A degree of resistance has been seen from owners, leading to a relatively steady 1A index trend although overall sentiment remains bearish. The 1A index declined by an average of $55 per day (22/07/2011 – 01/08/2011), a total decline of $384. Reported fixtures were thin on the ground, and there remains little impetus for a sustained rise in rates anytime soon. In the Pacific the number of vessels ballasting towards the Atlantic provided some degree of stability to rates, however little change was seen in the past week, with 3A rates finding an apparent ‘floor’ at around $8,000 per day+. Overall activity remains fairly muted in what was a very quiet week, and this trend may continue unless we see some notable improvement in cargo volumes. On the period front, there was limited enquiry over the week, with just a few fixtures to report. The overall trend was one of further softening, and TESS 74 were getting fixed at around $11,000 for short period” said the report.

Finally, on the Supramax/Handy segment, the Baltic Supramax Index went down by 12 points to finish at 1,259 points last week, while the average of the time charter routes lost about $120 daily to finish at $13,161 per day. The market was active in the Atlantic, tonnage and cargoes remaining quite balanced. Supras ex South America fixed for trip to the Far East at rates close to $20,000 daily with equivalent ballast bonus. In the Med and Black Sea, we noticed some lack of requirement - sustained with interest for ships for few legs or short period. In the Pacific, EC India-China was fixing at rates close to $9/10,000 daily while China-India via Indonesia rated $11,000 daily. On the smaller sizes, the Baltic Handysize Index went down by 21 points to finish at 676 points with the time charter routes losing $328 to reach $9,944 daily. The TARV was worth $11,000 per day, whereas the Pacific round voyage was trading close to $8,500 daily. On the period front, a recently built 57,000 dwt fixed with delivery China for 4/6 months, redelivery worldwide, at $11,000 daily” concluded BRS.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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