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Wednesday, 20 July 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON FALLING ON SOFTENING CONDITIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market retreated to lower ground on Tuesday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) fell to 1,330 points, down by 0.75% on the day. Capesizes and Panamaxes were weak alltogether, with the Baltic Capesize Index retreating by 0.84% to 1,884 points and the Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) ending the session down by 0.9% to 1,541 points.

According to the latest weekly report from Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS), “there was a  softening for the larger ships this week, with the Capesize and Panamax indices falling 9% and 6% respectively to end on Friday at 1,918 and 1,578 points. However the Supras and Handies stayed firm, losing just a handful of points to finish at 1,271 and 696 points.

In the news, it emerged Australian mining newcomer Fortescue has been in talks with Asian yards over a possible order for a series of 250,000 dwt Capesizes. The news underlines the fact that, despite the heavy Capesize orderbook (equivalent to 45% of the existing fleet for Capes over 80,000 dwt), operators with secure or captive cargoes may still order new tonnage given current newbuilding prices. At an estimated $53m, the price for a standard Capesize is now back at 2003 levels once inflation adjustments are taken into account” said BRS.

In terms of the Capesize segment, “despite a decent start to the week, activity declined by the end of the week and rates slipped significantly. Friday-to-Friday the BCI fell nearly 200 points while the 4TC closed the week at $11,500, down from $13,941 the previous Friday. Indeed Thursday saw the 4TC breach $14,000, its highest level since January 2011. As a result of this week’s fall, the Panamax time charter average rose back above the Cape again. Overall, Pacific rates fell 8% and South America-Cont nearly 10%. But Tubarao-China remained fairly steady, losing only 3% over the week. The mixed messages in the physical market saw light trading on paper, but Q4 finished the week at $12,135, higher than the $11,250 logged for August and September” said the Paris-based shipboker.

Similarly, “the Panamax market is still weak and under pressure worldwide. Friday and Monday were almost silent with very few fixtures to report. On the top of the $1,200 lost from July 4-11, the P4TC posted a additional $1,100 loss for July 11-18. Open tonnage in the Atlantic/Pacific and India continues to rise and more ballasters are expected to hit the ECSA this week. In the Atlantic, the TA trip, previously in the mid $15,000s was now aiming at $14,000, with charterers sometimes asking below $13,500, helped by the oversupply. Some fresh cargoes out of the USG have helped to support rates so far but the pressure is now rising. It is the same story for the cargoes out of ECSA as ballasters from the Far East become available, which will enable charterers to push for lower rates. There is a bearish outlook for the coming week. Meanwhile the P2A index dropped by $1,200 last week.

In the Pacific, the freight market eased too on the back of few fresh cargoes. The P3A index lost $1,400 ($8,469/day) and sentiment there is still relatively negative with rates recently done closer to $8,000/day. The monsoon and high iron ore stockpiles in China (imported ore stocks are at a record high) will not impact the market positively. The only market showing some strength was short period, with rates in the $12,800/$13,200 range, which is up +$400/500 on the previous week” mentioned BRS in its analysis.

Referring to the Supramax/Handy markets, the report said that “the Supras have been following the same trend for a couple of weeks now, that is, a slight decrease. The Index lost 2 points over the last week to end up at 1,271 points while the average lost $18 over the week, falling from $13,310 to $13,292. The market was pretty quiet, driven by uncertainty, and modern Supras were fixed from West Africa to the Far East via east coast South America at a touch below $20,000. From the US Gulf area, Supramaxes were fixed to the Continent in the mid $20,000s and in the high $20,000s for Far East direction. For short period, modern Supras were taken in the Atlantic for 3/5 months at around $14,000.For the smaller sizes, the BHSI remained almost steady, losing 2 points and ending the week at 696 points. Handies were fixed in the mid/high $10,000s ex USG to the Black Sea and slightly under mid  10,000s ex Continent to the East Med. In the Pacific Basin, the Nopac fixtures for Supras are in the $9,500/10,000 level, the China round is around $11,000. The Indo to India route is fixed at around $13,000. For Handysize, the Australian round is about $8,000” concluded the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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