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Friday, 15 July 11
DRY BULK MARKET SUFFERS NEW BLOW, RETREATS EVEN FURTHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market fell even lower yesterday on the back of lower demand for larger vessels, like Capesizes and Panamaxes. The industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was down by 16 points to 1,367, with the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) down even further to 1,943 points, while Panamaxes were also among the main “losers” with the Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) falling to 1,606 points as well. By contrast, the smaller vessel types were unchanged yesterday.
In light of this weak demand, it’s useful to take a look on the latest dry bulk demand estimated from BIMCO. According to the analysis, “the healthy demand picture of some 6% demand growth is what keeps the dry bulkers afloat. Despite the multiple disruptions that have already taken place, we see growing demand for almost all commodities. This has certainly prevented a meltdown of freight rates. Many people expected the current doldrums already last year, but extremely strong demand growth in 2010 postponed the hardship into 2011. While Capesize vessels are having the worst time of their lives, Supramaxes have kept up quite well recently – particularly in the Atlantic, where rates have moved more sideways than down. But the overall direction is in tune with all the other dry bulk vessel sizes – and that’s “southbound”. Even the smallest vessel type, Handysize, has not completely withstood the overall downward pressure, as rates in that segment are down 45% in May y-o-y. But if you look closer at 2011 alone, Handysize rates have been very stable in the USD 10,000-12,000 per day interval.
Like the tanker business has already done for some time now, the dry bulk business is settling in for an endurance race, as profitability hits new lows. Queensland, Australia, is getting closer to normal throughput following the severe flooding in January that hampered especially coal exports but also weakened the prospects of an otherwise strong high quality wheat harvest and subsequently strong export volumes. As Australian coking coal exports have been limited due to the extensive floods, the shortage has been spilling over into rising regional coal prices. That has benefitted the US, South African and Columbian exports, which in combination with falling freight costs, has made long distance coal transports competitive.
Extraordinary post-quake demand from Japan remains to be seen and the lack of dry bulk commodity demand from Japan is expected to stay around for another few months. As an exception the steel industry has managed to prevent a massive drop in output and thus also kept raw material imports steady. Official Japanese estimates point at a less than 3% drop in steel production in Q2 as compared to same period last year. Thus Japanese iron ore and coking coal demand have not been great movers in the market and are not really expected to become so throughout the remainder of 2011. What happens in the medium term depends largely on when rebuilding of the nation kicks off big time. Overall Japanese industrial production fell by 14.0% y-o-y in March, this is a significant drop bearing in mind that 1/3 of the month was normal.
Regardless of the slightly softer overall demand picture that is playing out when comparing it to the forecast at the start of the year, demand for most commodities is solid. Iron ore is set to be the best performer of the major bulk commodities at 1,040 million tons (+6% y-o-y) and amongst the minor bulks, cement stand out positively as it claws its way back from the 2009-abyss. The level is still some 15 million tons shy of the 2006-peak, but the cement trade is on course for 91 million tons, which will then be the highest demand on record when you exclude the extraordinary years 2005-2008” said BIMCO’s shipping analyst Peter Sand.
Another interesting insight can be given through the latest trends regarding demolition activity. According to the latest weekly report from Piraeus-based shipbroker, Golden Destiny, “in the demolition market, there has been a subdued sentiment with India offering weaker scrap rates and Bangladesh situation still being vague. Pakistan is trying to bid some tonnage, while China has stepped behind offering the lowest levels. In the bulk carrier segment, capesizes are still on the spotlight with about 47 units reported to have been sent to the scrap yards within the year.
There is a feeling that this trend will continue till the end of the year as capesize time charter equivalent earnings have not yet fully recovered, even though are floating above $10,000/day.
The recent softness in scrap prices has caused some worries about the trend in the coming weeks and some of the buyers and sellers wait and watch before committing to new deals. Rumors that the expected market closure in Bangladesh may not be forced on the beginning of July, leaves hopes for a future spike in rates. Bangladesh is now offering $495/ldt for dry/general cargo and $520/ldt for wet cargo, while in India scrap levels have fallen by $30-$40/ldt from May. It is worth mentioning the intensive scrapping trend in the reefer segment during the last month in the scrap yards of India.
The week ended at a slow pace of demolition activity but at higher levels from previous week with 11 vessels reported to have been headed to the scrap yards of total deadweight 850,332 tons. Bulk carriers have grasped the lion share, 55% of this week’s volume of business with 67% of the scrapping business being centred on large size units, capesizes and VLOC. In terms of the reported number of transactions, the demolition activity has been marked with a 22% week-on-week increase and in terms of the total deadweight sent for scrap there has been a 71% increase. In terms of scrap rates, the highest scrap rate has been achieved this week for M/V “Berge Pacific” 231,851dwt of 33,679 ldt at $505/ldt with buyers option India – Pakistan-Bangladeh. At similar week in 2010, demolition activity in terms of the reported number of transactions was down by 81% than the current levels, when 2 vessels had been reported for scrap of total deadweight 204 mil tons with India offering the highest levels $375/ldt for dry and $400/ldt for wet cargo” concluded Golden Destiny.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 31 July 11
CAPES ARE TRADING BELOW $ 9500 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI further softened by 4.46 pct and closed at 1264 points which touched below 1300 points after long time. The Cape and Panamax ...
Friday, 29 July 11
5300 ADB COAL WILL BE AT US$ 60/TON IN THIS QUARTER - RAIN
COALspot.com - PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI) seeing the average selling price of its coal for the third quarter of this year will increase t ...
Thursday, 28 July 11
PTBA'S COAL PRICES UP IN H1 2011
COALspot.com - Bukit Asam’s coal prices in the second half of 2011 will expected to be higher than the first half of this year, said Sukrisno, ...
Thursday, 28 July 11
RESOURCE ALAM 1H PROFIT SURGES 208 PERCENT
Indonesia's tenth largest coal miner in term of concessions, PT Resource Alam Indonesia (KKGI), part of Rain Group, today reported a skyrocket net ...
Thursday, 28 July 11
DRY BULK MARKET EDGES FURTHER DOWN ON ADDED PRESSURE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an indicator of dry bulk freight rates has reached new lows this week, with yesterday’s session ending further dow ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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