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Thursday, 14 July 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS FALLING ON WEAK CAPESIZE SENTIMENT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market kept on retreating on Wednesday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) falling to 1,383 points, from 1,411 of the previous day. Capesizes have been the main losers, with the Capesize Index moving down to 1,965 points, from 2,022, while additional pressure came to them market from the Panamax segment which also lost some ground yesterday. It’s more than obvious that it will take a lot more scrapping of older vessels and a much more stronger demand for commodities around the world, to make for the incredible rise of newbuilding deliveries, which have overweighed the market since the end of 2010.

In a recent update, US-based analysts at Commodore Research & Consultancy said that “Capesize rates have come under pressure as we anticipated.  In recent weeks, we alerted clients that capesize rates would likely come under pressure due to our anticipation of a lull in Chinese iron ore demand, and also due to the continued delivery of a large amount of capesize newbuildings. 

Chinese iron ore fixtures have come under significant pressure as we anticipated.  10 vessels (including 5 capesize vessels) were chartered to haul iron ore to China last week.  The previous week saw 21 vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China (all 21 vessels were capesize vessels).  Chinese iron ore demand has remained low this week and more capesize newbuildings continue to enter the market. As a result, capesize rates are coming under pressure” said Commodore. In a latest article, Reuters mentioned that according to traders  dry bulk freight rates were expected to remain subdued in July on the back of the Indian monsoon season, which will most likely reduce iron ore exports from India. Also China may import lower volumes of iron ore due to its current high level of inventories.

In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Fearnley’s referring on the Capesize market, mentioned that “after a short period where owner seems to be deciding the direction and rates kept improving, the air suddenly was out of the balloon end last week. So far this week the big ones have not appeared in the market for West Australia/China, resulting in rates dropping from usd 8.65 to usd low 8s (based on sentiment and lack of fixtures). The front haul rates have however remained steady arnd usd 20.50 bss Tub/Gd, but expected to decrease as less West Australia fixtures resulting in more ballasters. Period marked is steady, with short period rates arnd usd 12,000 dly” said the report.

On the Panamax front, Fearnley’s said that “overall the market is suffering from low activity and a bearsih sentiment where Charterers are holding back to book. North Atlantic rates remain realtively flat above the mid teens with a fine balance between fresh requirements and open positions. In the South Atalntic the almost stable 25 + 500 level gradually seems to disappear as the area clearly is suffering from an increasing number of ballasters from the east. In the Pacific the trend from last week continues. Levels in the 9,000 area and fresh buisines mainly represented by some coal from Indonesiea to China. Otherwise low activity and volumes for more open positions in the Far East. With a slowly sliding FFA market and summer holidays in Europe coming, the forecast is not exactly thrilling” said the shipbroker.

As far as the smaller Handy sector, “business from USG to Cont/Med farily healty but nervous going forward.Overall the Atlantic activity is on the low side with a negative undertone as number of open positions seems to increase. Some shortage of tonnage in the South Atlantaic with the same trend as further north – rates are softening. Pacific market remains quiet. For Indo-India, supras in South China are getting close to 10k. Nickel-ore rounds are getting firm rates in low teens. Very quiet on iron ore front due to monsoons as WCI-China, rates slid to 10k and from ECI around 9k. Little Indian tonnage seen ballasting to Indonesia and RBCT. As a result, RBCT biz fixed on APS at around 20k. Red Sea, ferts on handymax/ supras are fixed at very mid 20´s pmt on voy bss to WC India. Period deals done at 13k for large supras” said the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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