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Friday, 01 July 11
CAPESIZE RATES TO REMAIN DEPRESSED IN COMING MONTHS SAYS SHIPPING ORGANIZATION - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


In a recent report, BIMCO reassessed that Capesize freight rates will remain in depressed territory in the coming months. Capesize Time Charter Average is likely to stay around USD 10,000-15,000 per day, which keeps Capesize in the unusual situation of having rates lower than the Supramax and Panamax rates that are likely to stay firm in the USD 15,000-20,000 per day. Handysize rates are in the USD 10,000-13,000 per day interval said BIMCO’s report.

Detailing its estimates, BIMCO said that “Russia is about to lift its ban on wheat exports on 1 July – a ban which has been effective since drought and wildfires affected the Russian wheat harvest in August last year. At that time, Russia was the world’s second-largest wheat exporter, with cargoes mainly going out of the Black Sea. The lifting holds the potential of supporting dry bulk freight rates in that region should a large amount of wheat get seaborne to be discharged in EU and US where bad weather conditions have already affected the forecast for this year’s harvest negatively.

Vale has now started to operate the first of its 400,000 DWT Very Large Ore Carriers as the Vale Brasil has now been delivered (10/5-2011) from Daewoo. Her maiden voyage goes from Ponta De Madeira in Brazil to the port of Dalian in China. According to the orderbook, Vale has another 7 owned VLOCs due for delivery in 2011. A total of 35 owned and chartered 400,000 DWT VLOCs will be delivered to Vale before the end of 2013. The giant bulkers will first and foremost provide fixed transportation costs (excl.bunkers) for Vale, but the impact on Capesize freight rates from the inflow of VLOCs on the important Capesize iron ore route from Brazil to Asia is likely to be of significance to the duration of the low freight rate environment in the Capesize market which is already massively oversupplied.

The worst drought in 50 years has been haunting China – impacting e.g. the hydro-electricity power plants and raising the prospect of a lack of electricity in certain regions. Recently, heavy rainfalls have changed the situation somewhat, but the extent of the counterbalancing impact is currently unknown. Coal is a natural substitute to make up for the lack of power. China receives 19% of its energy from hydropower plants. China, the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal, imports when the price difference and quality are right. Imports of coal are, however, vital to China as its own giant reserve (the world’s 3rd largest) is set to last just 38 years at the current

production level. Currently, import prices are relatively high and thus low volumes of coal go into China. The drought situation may spur higher overall demand and thus push domestic prices higher and by that potentially restart seaborne coal imports which should support the freight markets.

Whether or not the delayed lifting of the Indian iron ore export ban from Karnataka will bring about better freight markets for Supramax and Panamax remains to be seen, especially as it has to counterbalance the monsoon season, which normally dampens Indian dry bulk activity”, said Mr. Peter Sand, BIMCO’s shipping analyst.

In terms of fleet supply, Mr. Sand mentioned that the active fleet has grown by 5.2% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 36 million DWT, offset by as much as 9.6 million DWT being demolished. The high demolition pace experienced during Q1 has stayed strong – positively impacted by firm and high demolition prices. “We have thus revised upwards our demolition estimate significantly. As 10 million DWT has already been demolished, a new but unexpected record level of demolition is set to take place in 2011. As the new building delivery forecast is only marginally higher than previously estimated, the higher rate of demolition means that the fleet is estimated to grow a tad slower at 12.9%” said Mr. Sand.

He continued by saying that “it is equally important that owners have just ordered 10.5 million DWT of new tonnage in the first 5 months. For sure the depressed freight markets are highly supportive to this trend. Should this pace of contracting activity be representative for the full year, 2011 will become the slowest year for new building contracts in 9 years. This means more trouble to the yard industry, as it struggles with a potentially very large overcapacity in coming years as yards fail to attract enough orders to run at full utilization, despite tempting owners with a slow but still ongoing slide in newbuilding prices” concluded the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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