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Tuesday, 21 June 11
DRY BULK MARKET TURNS RED AGAIN ON VESSEL OVERSUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk entered this week on a negative turn, with the industry’s benchmark the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) retreating by 0.35% to end the session down to 1,418 points. Still, sentiment was mixed between the various ship types and markets, with Capesizes faring better than smaller vessels and finally edging ever so closer to the Panamax market, in terms of average daily earnings. Yesterday, the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) was higher by 0.66% to 1,836 points. This, combined with the Panamax’s market retreat by 1.62% to 1,883 points meant that the two larger vessel types are ever so close. During the previous months, the panamaxes earning more than their larger counterparts has been a typical “abnormality of the market”, on the back of higher supply of capesize vessels.

In a relative report, Paris-based Barry Rogliano Salles mentioned that the Capesize market was the sole positive positive performer this week, with the BCI up 5%, while all the other segments suffered losses. The BPI lost almost 1% to finish at 1914 points, while the BSI and the BHSI lost 2% to 1319 and to 734 respectively. On the Capesize market, the report noted that “after a soft start to the week, rates picked up and the BCI finished Friday at 1824 points, and the 4TC at US$10,120 – a 9% increase on the previous week. The Atlantic saw a good recovery with rates going up 7-8%, while Hedland-Qingdao also saw a small boost. There were also some signs of a pick-up in China coal demand with fixtures being quoted for longer haul routes. The period market continues to soften, however, and a 171,000 tonner was fixed for 9-11 months with China delivery at US$10,250 per day, a new low for the market. The market is also seeing a drop in demolition rates in the Indian sub-continent, signaling that the supply of tonnage going for scrap may now be taking its toll on prices” said BRS.

It is worth noting that Vale announced this week that its new ‘Valemax’ vessels would reduce its shipping costs by around 20-25%, and that it would ‘keep building as much as is necessary’. Vale said iron ore shipping costs for the company would drop to between $17-$18 per ton with the new ships, compared to $22 per ton today. The company also declared ‘a few ports’ in China were ready to accommodate the vessels. Vale calculates its freight costs based on a 10 year average operating cost plus a good return on the capital investment for a basket of vessels including Capesizes and the new mega sized vessels. Vale admitted the ships would have greater benefit in the a harder market: “Today we have got the best possible market situation with high iron ore prices and low freight rates but we want to be ready for when the market turns."

In terms of the Panamax market, it “stayed flat this week with the 4TC average easing by $100 to close the week at $15,344 per day. The Pacific market fell by $550 to just below $14,000 per day.

The Indian Ocean stayed quiet and iron ore out of WCI/China was muted – Panamax vessels open there were able to fix at around $12-12.50 pmt for trip from WCI to China.

In the Atlantic, the market peaked on Wednesday and then eased by $300 per day Thursday and Friday. W-o-w the TA increased by $200, to end the week at just below $17,000 per day.

Period wise, the short period market stayed flat at $14,000 with a small number of vessels being fixed” said the report.

As far as the Supramax/Handy markets are concerned, BRS mentioned that  “the Far East remained unexciting with a definite lack of cargoes and plenty of ships in every position. Consequently the market weakened further, falling to below $10,000 for Nopac or Australian round voyages. Another bleak area was India, where the monsoon has started hitting owners hard, leaving no alternative but to ballast either to South Africa or further away to ECSA or the Singapore area. South America saw a flurry of activity with a good number of fixtures to any destination, supported by sugar and grain exports. Several Supramax have been fixed in the region of $20-21,000 + $400,000 ballast bonus, with ECSA delivery for trip out. The transatlantic remained steady, with rates equating to mid teens for round voyages. The USG remained firm with several petcoke stems, leading to rates in the mid $20,000s for trip Continent or Med. Handies fared well, averaging low teens over the week, irrespective of basin”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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