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Wednesday, 15 June 11
DRY BULK MARKET WEAKENS AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


Despite this time of year traditionally being one of the busiest for the dry bulk market, it seems that in the post-crisis era trade patterns are constantly evolving and changing. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the industry’s benchmark, fell yesterday to its lowest in more than three weeks, ending the session down to 1,400 points, retreating by a total of 0.85%. The main reason was the weaker capesize activity, with shipbrokers reporting lower demand. As a result, the Baltic Capesize Index fell by 2.19% to 1,694 points, while a smaller fall of 0.6% was also noted in the Supramax segment. The only “survivor” of this latest downfall of the market, has, so far, been the Panamax market, which is steadily outpacing the oversupplied Capesize one. Panamaxes were higher by 1.28% yesterday to 1,975 points.

In its latest weekly report, Paris-based shipbroker Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS) said that the past week was characterized by yet more instability, with the Capes, Supras and Handies losing ground, and the Panamax gaining, a pattern carried on in this week as well. “Stockpiles of imported iron ore at China’s major ports rose by almost 1% this week to a new high of 93.43 million tonnes. It follows a 0.8% increase in imports in May to 53.3 million tonnes compared to the previous month. Despite government efforts to curb overheating, and low profit margins for the industry, production at China’s steel mills remains robust. The mills produced a record 60.25 million tonnes of steel in May. Demand is expected to stay strong until July, when the quieter summer season begins. Power rationing could also curb some activity between June and September” said BRS.

On the Capesize market, it said it’s been “a quiet start to the week saw rates drop in the Pacific, and then subsequently spread to the Atlantic. Overall the BCI dropped nearly 11% to 1735, with Atlantic routes taking the biggest hit. In the Pacific, Tubarao-China was fairly busy but ultimately rates dropped around 5% w-ow, and out of Australia there was a good flow of cargoes, but even here the oversupply of tonnage pushed rates down slightly by around 3%. The 4TC finished on Friday at US$9,320 per day, down from US$11,773 the previous week. The BCI dropped 12 points on Monday, and there was uncertainty about the future direction of the market” said the shipbroker.

As for the best performing market, the Panamax one, “Friday to Friday, the Panamax market rose by US$1,300 in the Atlantic (US$16,800 per day) and $1,400 in the Pacific (US$14,500 per day). In the Pacific, the Indo and Australian coal cargoes were keeping prompt vessels active, giving some fresh air to owners. Out of India, however, iron exports were less active and vessels were not achieving more than US$12.50 pmt basis ECI/China route. In the Atlantic, the number of available ships was much less than a month ago and this basin seemed to have found a real stability. Period wise, the market has been extremely quiet throughout the week mainly due to a weak forward FFA market. Rates for short period remained stable at around US$14,000/14,500 per day for short period dely North China redelivery worldwide” noted the report.

Finally, on the smaller ship types of the Supramax and Handysize class, BRS mentioned that “the Baltic Supramax Index came off last week from US$15,004 to US$14,009, mainly driven by the eastern side due to the oversupply of vessels in the Pacific and the start of Indian monsoon. A 56,000 dwt was fixed for a Nopac round last week at US$13,500 daily, while a week later a 52,000 dwt was fixed at US$10,000 for a similar trip. Supramax have been fixed from India to China around US$9,000 daily compared to a week earlier when it was around US$12,000. The worst we noted was a Supra fixed spot China to ECSA at US$6,500 daily. The Atlantic remained stable due to a good activity in USG and ECSA, in particular a 58,000 dwt was fixed at US$28,800 from USG to Cont. In the smaller sizes, the Baltic Handysize slightly decreased by 16 points to reach 749, while the average of the TC close at US$11,110. Handysize were fixed in the high teens from ECSA to Cont, and similar numbers have been seen from USG. The Black Sea saw a lack of activity this week but rates remained ok with a modern 28,000 dwt fixed at a good rate of US$7,500 to USG, while other vessels were fixed at US$10,000 to Wafr. In the East, rates are decreasing slightly and a 37,000 dwt was fixed for a Nopac round at a similar rate as Supramaxes at US$10,000, in line with the Baltic index. Only one fixture has been reported from India to China for a 33,000 dwt, also at US$ 10,000.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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