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Friday, 10 June 11
DRY BULK ON RETREAT MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


This week has offered dry bulk ship owners no real reason to smile, as the industry’s benchmarket, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has been steadily falling, trimming the gains achieved during the past couple of weeks. Yesterday, the BDI was down by 0.42% to 1,428 with Capesizes once again on the downside. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) fell by 1.89% to 1,767. By contrast, the only positive tone in the market at the moment is the Panamax segment, which recorded gains of 2.42% yesterday to 1,903 points. Brokers indicated that ship supply is still weighing down in the market, with each single event in terms of cargo supply, being enough to send rates on a falling pattern. Vale’s deployment of the first in many of the world’s largest carriers, the so called Very Large Ore Carriers (VLCOs), able to carry 400,000 tons, isn’t also helping the situation.

Earnings for panamaxes, which usually transport 60,000-70,000 tonne cargoes of coal or grains, have more than halved since the same period last year said Reuters in a story. Brokers said coal cargoes from Australia and Indonesia to China was providing some support, although gains were capped by slower grains activity out of South America. It went to mention that operators were watching for further signs that China's economy was slowing, given the dry freight market's dependence  on Chinese imports, especially of coal and iron ore.

In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Fearnley’s said that the Capesize market “cold water is again coming out of the shower for owners as spot levels fall due to softening demand - average daily earnings down 10% w-o-w to come in at USD 10k. In Atlantic, fronthaul activity is cooling down, although rates not yet dramatically affected. The sudden lack of transatlantic trade is more felt, with a resultant drop of almost 30% to an estimated USD 10k/day.

Far East remains challenging and keeps hovering around OPEX levels – low USD 7k´s for rounds and uninspiring USD 7.50 pmt for the Dampier/Qingdao conference trade. As forward paper prices give no support at present, period activity has come to a halt after a handful of units were concluded for short and medium periods - exemplified by 174kdwt/blt 2006 done for 12 months at USD 11k and 169kdwt/blt 2009 done for 4-6 months at USD 10500, both basis prompt delivery in Far East” said the report.

In the Panamax market, “after a slow end to last week and even slower start to this week, the market improved on Tuesday in both hemispheres. The Atlantic saw several fresh cargoes fm USEC and ECSA, and in the Far East the upturn came due to fresh coal cargoes from Aussie and Indonesia to China. Now, at mid week, we are again at a crossroad with the players not sure where the market will be heading. We see some more interest in period deals now, and seems chrts feel the rates at ard USD 14k are interesting for twelve months. Atlantic rounds are getting fixed at ard USD 16k while front hauls are being fixed in the low/mid USD 20k´s. Pacific rounds are being fixed around 13.5/14k while the backhauls are getting fixed around USD 6k´s” said Fearnley’s.

As for the smaller ship types, the report mentioned that it’s been a fairly quiet market across the board with another flat week/stagnant rates in store. “Nevertheless, tonnage is thinning out in the Black Sea for the second half of June which might give some improvement on rates. Little activity on the Continent. USG remains stable on the back of regular petcoke exports. In the ECSA more cargoes are programmed for the second half of June thus look for better rates there in near future. The Pacific market is falling further with less activity. For Indo-India, Supras in North China are getting close to 10k. Nickel-ore rounds are getting firm rates in low-mid teens from Indonesia. WCI-China rates slided to 13k and from ECI around 12k. Red Sea, ferts on Handymax/Supras are fixed at very mid 20´s pmt on voyage basis to WC India. Large Supras for RBCT/India round now asking 14k. Period deals done at 14-15k for large Supras” concluded the report.
Source:
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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