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Friday, 27 May 11
LARGER DRY BULK CARRIERS LEAD BDIS RALLY THIS WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


Larger dry bulk vessels have kept on leading the market’s rise this week, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rising by a more than healthy 3.43% to 1,446 points. Capesizes and Panamaxes have been the stars so far, with the Capesize market gaining  4.08% and the Panamax one returning to rising levels by an equally impressive 4.39%. Of course, one should take into account that traditionally this time of the year, the dry bulk market experiences its highest seasonal demand, which could help justify this week’s rise. But, on the other hand, oversupply issues haven’t just “magically” gone away and will keep on pressing the market and causing high rate volatility.

Yesterday, brokers and analysts alike were speculating that behind this week’s rise, is the potential decommissioning of some vessels.

“No owner’s going to continue doing business at $4,000 a day or $6,000, below operating costs,” said Hendrik Leusink, division executive for capesize and panama vessels at Island View Shipping SA, South Africa’s biggest commodities shipping line.

Quoted by Bloomberg he mentioned that “people will put ships into temporary lay-up or idle ships.” Operating costs for the vessels are between $7,500 and $8,000 a day, according to estimates from London-based Simpson Spence & Young, the world’s second-biggest shipbroker. Capesizes were below that level from April 11 to May 19.

In its latest weekly report, Fearnley’s mentioned that finally there were some good news for Capesize ship owners, even though rates in general are at a historic low and fundamentals have changed very little over the week. “Driven almost entirely by increased transatlantic coal trades and a steady volume on the Brazil/China iron ore run, average spot levels are up more than 50% to come in at close to USD 9k. Pacific is slow and eventless in comparison, though, with resultant levels for the WAust/China ore run only marginally up at USD 7.35 pmt which is still below opex. Expectations are there for this to last a little longer, thus more period fixing is expected - last done is 178kdwt/built 1998 done for 10-14 months at USD 10700/day basis delivery Qingdao mid June” said the report.

In the Panamax market, “after a slow start to the week, we saw more cargoes in the market on Tuesday with both coal from US and grains from ECSA. Especially the Pacific basin took a turn on Tuesday evening with chrts chasing prompt ships which were lacking. NoPac rounds were fixed at around 14k and still climbing, while the Atlantic rounds were fetching around USD 15k. Fronthauls hovering around USD 250k. It has been some short period activity this week with rates hovering around 13/14k. It was also rumored a kmax being fixed and failed for 3 years at a tick more than USD 14k” mentioned the shipbroker.

Finally, for the smaller ship types, “rates in the Atlantic remain steady/flat with the Black Sea remaining quiet with little fresh enquiries. The Continent is seeing more tonnage on ppt /beg of June positions. US Gulf to the Far East is slowly but surely firming further and more activity seen on transatlantic round voyage. ECSA is balanced with very little movement on rates. Outlook: stable. The Pacific market remains soft and owners unwilling to come in India due to lack of outbound cargoes. For Indo-India, Supras in North China are getting close to 12k. Nickel-ore rounds are getting firm rates in mid-high teens from Indonesia.

WCI-China rates slided to 15k and from ECI around 12k. Red Sea; ferts on handymax/ Supras are fixed at very mid 20´s pmt on voyage basis to WC India. Large Supras for RBCT/India round are now asking 15k. Short period deals done at mid-teens for large Supras” concluded Fearnley’s.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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Thursday, 19 May 11
OVERSUPPLY, VERY LARGE ORE CARRIERS EAT UP ON DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
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