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Saturday, 14 May 11
DRY BULK MARKET ON A DOWNFALL ONCE AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


In what is now pretty clear will be yet another challenging year for dry bulk ship owners, the Baltic Dry Index returned to its usual pattern of decreases, as it’s obvious that the outstanding oversupply of dry bulk carriers is so massive, that demand simply can’t and won’t keep up. Yesterday, the BDI fell for the second consecutive day, ending at 1,320 points, down by 1.05%, led by falls in all markets, but most evidently by the Panamax segment’s lack of demand. This has come as a sharp contrast to what was the case during the past few days, when the Panamax market was the one leading the freight rates’ rise. Yesterday, Panamaxes lost 2.43% on average, while the loss in the capesize segment was less, down by 0.73%.

According to a relative analysis, provided yesterday by ship owners DS Norden, spot rates in the dry cargo market has been decreasing throughout the first quarter. The BDI fell by 14% at the end of the quarter, compared to where it was at the end of 2010. Similarly, the average for the BDI in the first quarter was 55% below the average for the first quarter of 2010. In general, the Capesize vessels were hit the hardest, whereas the other vessel types performed relatively better. However, the pressure on the smaller vessel types appears to be increasing following the end of the quarter. The drop in rates during the period was caused by a combination of continued addition of newbuildings, declining coal exports from Queensland, Australia, due to flooding, and finally declining imports of raw material to Japan after the earthquake in the north-eastern part of the country.

“As expected, the addition of newbuildings to the dry cargo fleet continued at a high level. It is estimated that a total of 22 million dwt. was delivered, corresponding to a growth rate of approximately 16% on an annual basis. The majority of the tonnage was delivered to the global Capesize fleet, which increased by more than 4%, whereas the Handysize fleet only increased by 1.5%. The growth was counterbalanced by a major increase in the scrapping volumes which grew by nearly 5 million dwt. – corresponding to approximately 4% of the fleet on an annual basis (source: R.S. Platou). If the fleet development from the first quarter continues, the supply growth rate will amount to approximately 13% net, which is still estimated to be too high to be absorbed by an otherwise great increase in demand” Norden said.

Commenting on the panamax market this week, Fearnley’s said that “the increase in activity and rates especially in the Atlantic from mid last week dropped somewhat as from beginning this week. T/a now largely steady and owners more reasonable and willing to repeat last done. More coal in Atlantic was the main reason for the positive upswing with rates pending between 15-16k. For ESCA the grain is still main driver with levels between 25,000 -26,500 + bb 550-600k. As more and more spot Capes offering in on Panamax stems, where this is possible, the result can influence negative on Panamax as well and predictions for coming weeks are more conservative. I the Far East rounds paying 14k and short period tic more”.

As for the Capesize segment, it said: “The week has been fairly quiet, with steady levels. Although freight levels slightly down, levels are flat due to lower bunker prices. Still a good number of ballasters and some vessels waiting outside Brazil, with lack of fronthaul cargoes for May dates. For West Australia to China, levels remain unchanged around usd 7.50 pmt, last done today usd 7.40 pmt by FMG. It seems people in general accepting the difficult and challenging state of the Cape market, and that the situation will remain for some time”.

Regarding the smaller ship types (Handy/Supramax) the market has been “stable/flat with positive undertone in the Atlantic meaning more enquiry hitting the market today. Lack of prompt vessels. Trips to the Far East around usd 22-25k per day for Supras nevertheless a lot of actors are still assessing the market´s direction. The Pacific market remains quiet with holiday in Korea and monsoon setting soon in India closing WCI iron ore activity. For Indo-India, Supras in North China are getting close to 13.5k. WCI-China rates slided to 15k and from ECI around 13k but few ships seen ballasting to Indonesia as not much cargoes ex-ECI. Red Sea, ferts on Handymax/Supras are fixed at very mid 20´s pmt on voyage basis to WC India. Large Supras for RBCT/India round now asking 15k. Not too much activity on short period as market bit volatile and speculative and hear index type vessels fixed at mid-teens” concluded the shipbroker in its weekly report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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