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Tuesday, 10 May 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RISING, OUTLOOK MIXED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market inched forward once again on Monday, with the Baltic Dry Index rising by 0.6% to 1,348, although the Capesize market was 0.57% lower to 1,557 points. The main reason for the latest increase was the Panamax segment which has kept its upward trend, as a result of increased coal and grain trade activity. The relative Baltic Panamax Index was up by 1.81% to 1,801 points, while a small increase by 0.79% was also evident in the Supramax segment of the market.

During the course of the past week, the BDI has risen by 5.6%, mainly driven by the remarkable 22% rise of the Panamax market. according to the latest weekly report from Paris-based shipbroker Barry Rogliano Salles, “Indian government figures showed this week that the country recorded zero growth in its domestic coal sector in fiscal 2010-2011. This compares to 7.9% growth in the previous fiscal year, and will be the first year of zero growth since 1998/1999. Commentators point to strict environmental limitations and uncertainty over so-called ‘no go areas’ as having a major effect on production, factors which will affect the country’s import levels going forward”.

Regarding the Capesize market, it mentioned that the continuation of holidays in Europe led to another quiet week for Atlantic Cape activity, and rates were little changed losing 0-1% over the week. “The Pacific was busier, although a softer trend was noted as the week progressed. Aus-China lost around 3% over the week. Overall the BCI gained 2 points w-o-w, while the time charter average rose from US$6,700 to US$6,777, a figure which is still below Opex for most operators. There are no big movements at the start of the new week although Monday saw another slight drift downwards, with the BCI losing 9 points” said BRS.

On the Panamax market, it said that “despite having a short week, with last Friday and Monday off, the BPI index recovered and the 4TC gained US$1,700 over the week. The biggest increase came from the Far East where the Nopac round gained US$2,300 closing the week at US$13,300 per day. This climb could be explained by an extremely quiet April month with charterers having, eventually, to fix cargoes and the fact that Australia, recovering from the floods, was able to export again. However WCI iron ore was still paralyzed as miner have not yet received permission to export. West of Suez, the ECSA market was very busy as every charterer, after the Easter holidays and various bank holidays, returned to the market at the same time. This pushed rates up to US$26,500 aps + 650 bb for a LME 74,000 dwt giving ETA end May/very early June. Overall the number of Atlantic vessels decreased, giving stability to this basin. Short period wise, the sudden Nopac and ECSA activity created a bubble, with rates climbing very quickly up to US$16,000 per day for a LME (US$3,000 more than a week ago)” said the shipbroker’s report.

On the smaller ships, BRS said that the “Baltic Supramax Index rose by 11 points to finish at 1,386 points last week, while the average of the time charter routes stayed flat, gaining just US$100 to finish at US$14,490 per day. The market was active in the Atlantic, with more and more freshly added grain/sugar cargos ex ECSA. In the meantime, tonnage was injected into the basin throughout the week, but surprisingly these newcomers did not soften the trend which remained flat and fully firm. Activity remained steady in the USG/USEC region, the main commodities being grain, coal and petcoke, trading mainly back to the Continent/Med range and to the Far East. With such a sustained market in the Atlantic basin, more and more ships are coming around to the idea of ballasting from the Indian Ocean or Med to the South Atlantic in order to satisfy demand.

In the smaller sizes, the Baltic Handysize index lost 3 points to finish at 792 points with the time charter routes losing US$100 to reach US$11,750 daily. Again the Atlantic is firmer than the Pacific and the TARV is worth US$12,500/day today, whereas the PARV is worth US$11,500 daily. On the period front, large and modern Supramaxes with delivery Far East are getting fixed in the low/mid US$15,000s for short period” concluded the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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