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Thursday, 05 May 11
PANAMAXES LEAD DRY BULK MARKET TO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) managed to edge higher yesterday, rising by 1.81% to 1,292 points, in the first post-holiday session, led by an “explosion” of the Panamax segment of the market. The relative Panamax index rose by a rather impressive 7.45 percent to 1,558 points, after several days of lacklustre activity. The Capesize market was also higher, albeit at a more modest rate, rising by 0.51% to end at 1,572 points.

According to the latest report from Barry Rogliano Salles, the rise in Panamax rates (5% during the previous week for a total of 12,45% including Tuesday’s increase) represents the first positive development in some time after almost seven weeks of consecutive declines. Even with the small gain seen this week, the Panamax 4TC has lost 70% of its value since early March. “Of course, coal shipments have been severely disrupted by weather related factors, and this week China reported a 25% decline in its coal imports over the first three months of 2011. This stands in sharp contrast to its iron ore imports which rose nearly 10% in the same period” said the Paris-based shipbroker.

Further detailing the Panamax market, it said that it saw very quiet conditions in both the Atlantic and Pacific this week, mainly due to the long weekend in the East. There was plenty of tonnage still available in both basins and the time charter rates barely managing to break into four digits for the Atlantic and Pacific round voyages. Fronthauls were being fixed in the low US$20,000s. Period activity also declined, with rates still in the low teens for short periods of 3-5 or 4-6 months.

Regarding the Capesize market, “holidays in Europe reduced activity in the Atlantic, although a period of fixing by the mining groups in the Pacific kept activity ticking over there. Overall the BCI inched up 1% while the time charter average closed the week at just under US$6,700. With worldwide steel production continuing to rise (up 7% in March), demand for iron ore remains strong. However with an average 27 ships joining the fleet each month, supply continues to outpace demand. In the paper market, rates picked up across the board and short-term prices strengthened. Prices are now US$10,700 and US$11,160 for June and July respectively” said the report.

As for the smaller segments (Handy, Supramax), the Handy market continued to slide down, and the TC average closed the week at US$11,897 compared to US$11,985 the week before. Supras remained steady and finished the week at US$14,530 led by the route USG/skaw –Passero. East coast South America remains the leading actor in the Atlantic with wheat and sugar traded to various destinations. A few fixtures have been done from USG to Cont/Med at around US$17,000 for Handies and US$24,000 for the Supras. The Mediterranean/Black Sea market remained lacking in action. In the east, rates continued to slids down for both Handies and Supras. Supras were fixed from Indonesia to China at around US$17,000 with mainly coal, and around US$14,000 from India to China. A few Supras have been taken for 4-6 months at around US$15,000 delivery India.

In a separate analysis, Commodore Research mentioned yesterday that despite the various electricity consumption restrictions on a series of industries in China, steel mills have been left largely unaffected. “This has allowed Chinese steel production to remain at extremely robust levels.

Steel production came under pressure last September due to government-mandated electricity allocation restrictions on steel mills and other heavy polluting nterprises; these specific restrictions were lifted by the end of last year. Chinese steel production has flourished in recent months, with last month's 59.4 million tons of crude steel production the second largest amount of crude steel ever produced in China. It is becoming likely that the government will have to place electricity allocation restrictions on steel mills (and other energy-intensive enterprises) in the near future however.

As we discussed last week, Chinese electricity consumption has surged to a near-record level much earlier than in previous years. Chinese electricity production totaled about 383 billion kilowatt hours in March, an increase of 46 billion kwh (14%) from 337 billion kwh produced in March 2010 and only slightly lower than the record 390 billion kwh produced in August 2010. Within a few months, electricity consumption is likely to exceed August 2010's record, as warmer weather will lead to a continued surge in electricity demand.

The Chinese government’s priority is having residential users receive normal allocations of electricity rather than focusing more on industrial users. In a nation where citizens are unable to vote (and, for most part, largely satisfied with this), it’s extremely important that the necessities and luxuries afforded to citizens are not taken away.
Because of this, China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) has banned restricting electricity allocation to residential users. The NEA anticipates that year-on-year electricity consumption will increase by over 10% this year, which will very likely put steel mills and other energy-intensive enterprises in the crosshairs of summer electricity allocation restrictions.

In the first four months of this year, Chinese steel production has remained at extremely high levels on the strength of robust domestic demand. Steel consumption has remained high, construction steel stockpiles have declined, and domestic and foreign iron ore demand has remained robust. Going forward, there is a considerable chance that steel mills will receive reduced electricity allocations due to Chinese electricity production in the summer simply being unable to come close to meeting demand. This would result in a decline in steel production and lower iron ore demand. As of now, though, Chinese steel production remains very robust” concluded Commodore.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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