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Wednesday, 13 April 11
CAPESIZE VESSELS ARE DELIVERED AT A PACE OF ONE NEW VESSEL EVERY SECOND DAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In a clear sign that it will take a significant rise in global seaborne dry bulk trade in order to be able to absorb the flurry of new building tonnage thrown into the water, BIMCO has issued a new report, saying, among others, that at the moment Capesize vessels are delivered at a rate of one new vessel every second day. On top of that, 6 VLOC’s have been launched with another 35 potentially up for delivery in 2011 (adjusted for slippage). The report also said that the active fleet has grown by 2.7% so far in 2011, caused by deliveries of 222 newbuilt vessels with an average cargo capacity of 85,000 DWT offset by 67 vessels with a total capacity of 4.8 million DWT being demolished.
On the positive side, “like in the tanker segments, demolition finally, but still surprisingly, has kicked off strongly – positively impacted by the high scrap steel prices. A 25 year-old large Capesize demolition was worth almost USD 11 million. However, the level of demolishing is still considerably below a level that could balance supply and demand and impact the freight markets positively” said the report by BIMCO’s shipping analyst, Peter Sand. “BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2011 to be a bit higher than in 2010 at 86 million DWT. As demolitions are expected to reach 12 million DWT, the fleet is forecast to grow by 13.8% in 2011. Newbuilding contracts are being signed at the slowest pace since Q2 in 2009. This is a very positive development, especially seen in the light of the unbelievable high contracting level in 2010 with 78 million DWT of new contracts” said the report.
In terms of the dry bulk market’s outlook, BIMCO said that “the events in Japan, will, in the short term, be a negative story for the dry bulk market as expected high volumes into Japan will be some 10-20 million tons lower, as coal power plants and steel mills have be shut down for a while and some are expected to be so for up to 1 year. In the medium to long term, dry bulk is likely to benefit as reconstruction takes off. Iron ore, coking coal, thermal coal and wood for construction are likely to be in higher demand following the disasters. Unlike Australia, which was a supply story, Japan is mainly about demand falling short – the impact on the freight market has been insignificant as compared to the flooding in Queensland.
BIMCO assesses that Capesize freight rates will remain in depressed territory in the coming months. Capesize Time Charter Average is likely to hover around USD 10,000–15,000 per day and backhaul trip charter earnings likely to continue to make negative returns.
The Capesize fleet has already grown 4.5% this year and overcapacity in the segment will stay a drag on freight rates each time they try to escape the doldrums. Supramax and Panamax are likely to stay firm in the USD 15,000–USD 20,000 per day interval as demand supports this level. Overall, dry bulk commodity demand growth is expected to be around 7-8% in 2011, with iron ore and coal as usual in the driving seat. This outlook provides a solid demand picture to comfort and fence a collapse of earnings, as oversupply is haunting all segments” said the report.
For the time being though, since early January, Capesize time charter rates have been below all the other segments including Handysize. While the 3 smaller segments have rebounded since then, Capesize is still down. “Current average of 4 time-charter routes is USD 10,371 per day. For comparison – a Handysize makes USD 11,849 per day, a Supramax USD 15,921 per day and a Panamax USD 15,807 per day. Spot rates on main Capesize iron ore trades from Brazil and Australia, which are the top two suppliers to the Chinese steel industry, look as if they have bottomed out during January and February. This year’s unfolding story in relation to iron ore trades will be the scheduled delivery of the first 6 out of 19 400,000 DWT VLOC’s to the Brazilian miner, Vale. This is expected to impact the market, as Vale is a large charterer of Capesize tonnage to service its Asian customers. In 2010, Vale exported 131 million tons to China. Estimating 6 round voyage a year, the 6 new build VLOC’s will be able to carry 14.4 million tonnes of iron ore p.a., equal to 11% of Vale exports to China. With another 13 to be delivered over the next 2-3 years, Vale will depend much less on the Capesize chartering market – as it will be self-sufficient in 25-30% of its tonnage demand. The vessels are intended to bring down Vale’s price disadvantage to the Australian iron ore by taking out the longhaul maritime transportation cost element. The spot rates are on average 2½ times higher on Brazilian ore, being a close mirror of the difference in distance.
It remains uncertain where Vale is going to establish its Asian iron ore distribution centre. First Qingdao was targeted, but failed to become a done deal. Lately Vale has focused on a Malaysian distribution hub, but another site remains an option, the Tianjin Dongjiang Free Trade Port Zone near Beijing – a new giant port and logistics centre. The final location will be vital to the success of VLOC’s.
Seaborne Iron ore demand is expected to grow by 7% overall, where China will take the most and European demand will increase to a precrisis level.
Also recently, the commodities trader Cargill has decided to become a ship owner once again, this time round mainly with the purpose of being an asset player. This adds to the number of large charterers making an entry into ship owning primarily with the object of controlling a larger part of the supply chain and converting variable costs to fixed costs.
The demand for taking Capesize vessels on time charter is on a par with last year. Time charter rates are currently higher than spot freight rates, which indicates an extraordinarily weak spot market. Representative deals that support the rather flat medium term expectation in the market are, amongst others, Cargill taking the “Semirio”, 174,000 DWT for two years at USD 17,000 per day and Rio Tinto taking “Bulk India”, 177,000 DWT for one year at USD 16,500 per day”, concluded BIMCO’s analysis
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 10 February 11
SUPRA RATES IMPROVED A LITTLE OVER US$ 6K BSS N. CHINA DELIVERY FOR INDO-INDIA AND THAILAND ROUNDS - FEARNBULK
Handy
Atl is still weak with little fresh enquiry and an accumulation of spot tonnage.Owners are reluctant to send tonnage thru Suez due to uncert ...
Thursday, 10 February 11
BUKIT ASAM EXPECTS ABOVE RP 3 TRIO PROFIT
The state-owned coal miner PT Tambang Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) expects to reach 2011's net profit above Rp 3 trillion (US$ 336,322,568) from above Rp2 ...
Wednesday, 09 February 11
INDONESIA ALLOWED 60 COAL TRADING COMPANIES TO EXPORT COAL
COALspot.com - A temporary ban imposed on coal traders in January has lifted this week. As of today 60coal trading companies were allowed to resume ...
Tuesday, 08 February 11
INDIA'S SIMHAPURU TARGETS S.AFRICAN COAL - ECONOMIC TIMES
Economic Times reported that, India's Simhapuri Energy , a unit of the Madhucon Group , wants to buy new or existing collieries in South Africa fro ...
Tuesday, 08 February 11
PUSTAKA JAYA PALU POWER LOOKING FOR 5800 GAD COAL
COALspot.com - According to market information, PT Pustaka Jaya Palu Power, a power plant operator of the Mpanau plant, Palu, Sulawesi has invited c ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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