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Friday, 01 April 11
DRY BULK MARKET WEAKENS ON SLOWER DEMAND, HOPES FOR MID-TERM REBOUND ON JAPANS RECONSTRUCTION - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market, as reflected in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) retreated for a third day yesterday, after staying flat on Monday, to end at 1,530 points, down by 0.97 percent. The main losing segment was the Panamax one with falls of 2.28 percent, while the Capesize market was on the upside, gaining 0.68 percent. As it turns out, for the time being, the disaster in Japan and especially the danger of radiation has hit trade activity, limiting cargoes to and from Japan. The country is a strong importer of dry bulk commodities, such as coal and iron ore.

In a weekly report, shipbroker Fearnley’s said that activity in the Capesize sector is up, but the same has yet to be reflected in rate levels as this segment remains generally overtonnaged. “The main WAust/China ore trade is erratic in volume but stable in value at usd 7.35-45 pmt - equivalent to less than opex. Nuclear concerns have given some support to Atlantic coal activity/expectations, with resultant transatlantic levels maintained at some usd 12250 and fronthaul also unchanged at around usd 23350. With an inverted forward curve, period activity is limited to 180kdwt/blt 2009 spot Feast done for 12 mos at usd 16k, 177kdwt/blt 2004 China ppt done for 4-6 mos at usd 15500 and 174kdwt/blt 2007 said to be done for 2 yrs at around usd 17500” said Fearnley’s.

Regarding the falling Panamax market, it mentioned that “with few fresh cargoes entering the market, the rates declined marginally this week. TA´s fixed in average around USD 16k, which is a tick down from last week. South America and coal from US kept the market going. In the Pacific the rates hovered around USD 16500. However rumors stated that Japan would increase their coal import, due to lack of nuclear energy. The ballasters from the Pacific and Indian Ocean obtained decent numbers, around USD 16-17k daily, which was in line with the short period market” said the report.

As for the smaller handy segment, “the Atlantic markets remain stable with more activity from the Black Sea to FEast paying in the mid 20´s on Supras. The USG remains firm paying in the mid 20´s for trips into the Med and low/mid 30´s for trips FE. Outlook: stable. The Pacific market is still weak; the signs of weakening are lack of fresh enquiries and less trading activities. Indian activities are also very slow. Supras on WC India are seeing high teens for trip to China with freight levels hovering between usd 20 pmt. Supras ex Richards bay coal terminal/India hovering at usd 25/27.00 pmt. Ex Red Sea to India handymax tonnages are seeing mid/high 20´s” concluded the shipbroker.

While things look a bit dim at the moment, there’s hope that Japan’s massive reconstruction process will boost prospects of the dry bulk freight market in the medium and long term. Japan may increase imports of Australian iron ore and of logs and lumber from New Zealand and Malaysia after the March 11 tsunami devastated buildings in the Tohoku region. Following the Kobe quake in 1995, the Baltic Dry Index, the benchmark for commodity-shipping rates, surged 20 percent in three months after initially falling 6 percent in three weeks said Bloomberg in a report. At the same time, dry bulk rates could get a modest boost as Japanese power plants restock coal inventories and steel companies import more iron ore to rebuild damaged output, analysts said.

For the time being though, fears of an ever increasing oversupplied market seem to be materializing, with rates still depressed. Just this week, China COSCO Holdings Co Ltd., the country’s top shipping conglomerate, said it saw huge challenges in the dry bulk market and urged companies "not to be quick to order new ships". Nevertheless, it added that rates could rise later this year.
Source:
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shippping



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