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Wednesday, 23 February 11
DRY BULK MARKET BACK ON RETREAT MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The two week rise of dry bulk freight rates seems to have come to a halt this week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) losing further ground yesterday to end at 1,279 points, a fall of 1.24% on the day. The larger vessels, i.e. the Capesizes and the Panamaxes were the ones mainly affected, with the first recording a loss of 2.39%, while the latter retreated by 3.08%. On the upside, the Supramax segment was 2.03% higher, while the smaller Handies remained practically unchanged.
So, it seems that after a strong rebound of the market, boosted by China’s return to trades and stockpiling, sentiment has weakened once again. A new report from Commodore Research & Consultancy goes even further to suggest that the “steam machine” that China has so effectively been for the dry bulk market for some time now, could be facing troubled waters ahead.
The report said that several troubling signs are emerging in China, pointing to a possible near-term slowdown in industrial production and related imports, which Commodore said would most affect capesize rates, while other dry bulk freight rates are expected to remain well above operating costs due to firm global cargo demand. “Chief among our concerns is a continued increased in Chinese steel stockpiles. Stockpiles of flat and construction steel products in China currently total approximately 15.4 million tons, 700,000 tons (5%) more than a week ago. Stockpiles have now increased for nine consecutive weeks and are a large cause for concern. Stockpiles remain much lower than March 2010’s 18.6mt peak, however, but the continued increase is a sign that Chinese steel output is poised to decline (we expect output will rebound in the spring however).
In addition, iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports remain at new records. Approximately 80 million tons of iron ore is currently stockpiled at major Chinese ports, an increase of 1.9mt (2%) from the days preceding Lunar New Year. Stockpiles could rise further during the next two months, as a large amount of recently chartered dry bulk vessels will soon be delivering additional iron ore to China (37 vessels were chartered to haul iron ore to China last week - a very large amount that was 18 more than during the previous week and 19 more than the trailing four week average). Last week’s surge in Chinese iron ore demand was likely influenced by robust international spot prices” said Commodore. Meanwhile, more traders are likely securing iron ore cargoes on a speculative basis. With Chinese port stockpiles so large, however, near-term iron ore demand and spot prices might soon come under moderate pressure.
At the same time, several social and economic issues are also becoming a cause for concern and could spark pockets of social unrest. “Housing and food prices remain high and are an ever-present problem for China’s masses. In addition, the recent Lunar New Year holiday travel period saw low-income citizens having a great deal of trouble securing train tickets. In the days following Lunar New Year, the head of China’s Ministry of Railways was removed due to corruption charges and running up a debt of over 2 trillion yuan ($304 billion). In recent months, the Ministry of Railways had been faced with growing criticism including the effectiveness of using high speed rail to transport China’s masses.
The ongoing democratic movements in the Middle East, collectively known as the “Jasmine Revolution”, have also become a cause for concern for the Chinese government. The government has been blocking internet and phone messages containing references to the movements in the Middle East. Citizens are unable to search for “Jasmine” (and the Chinese equivalent) online, and internet and phone messages with related terms are unable to be transmitted. In addition, the government has been cracking down on a few small protests in cities along the east coast.
There also have been reports of Chinese universities restricting students from leaving campus in order to stem any potential protests. China’s government is being faced with a harsh reality: nations have quickly begun to rise up against unelected governments. The disenfranchised across the world have clearly seen that they have the power to demand change and remove governments. China is quite different than the Middle Eastern nations that have been undergoing social unrest, however, as China has an economy that has been experiencing remarkable growth and has allowed a huge amount of citizens to lead more prosperous lives.
The government is well aware of this, but more than censoring its citizens, it needs to ensure that robust economic growth continues. The last few months of substantial growth in Chinese steel and iron ore stockpiles is troubling, however, and could be pointing to an upcoming temporary slowdown in steel production and iron ore imports. The expected slowdown could not come at a worse time for capesize rates. It also would pose yet another significant challenge for the Chinese government being able to maintain robust economic growth” concludes Commodore.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 24 February 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS LOSING GROUND, CAPESIZES SUFFERING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market lost further ground yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index was rapidly falling, ending the session d ...
Thursday, 24 February 11
SUPRAS ARE FIXED AT CLOSE TO 10K FOR TRIPS VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA WITH COAL - FEARNBULK
Handy
After a short lived surge in rates the Atlantic market has flattened out due to too many spot vessels. The USGulf has cooled down somewhat f ...
Wednesday, 23 February 11
LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF COAL COULD TRIP MEGA POWER PLANT - THE ECONOMIC TIMES
The Economic Times, an Indian leading news paper reported that, an acute shortage of domestic coal is threatening to destabilize new power generatio ...
Wednesday, 23 February 11
INDONESIA NEEDS TO REVISE EXPORT BAN ON 5600 GAD COAL EXPORT - INDUSTRY
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government may be forced to revise its 2014 timeline for the proposed ban on all low quality coal exports, Patrick Han ...
Tuesday, 22 February 11
SUPRAMAX MARKET IS IMPROVING IN THE PACIFIC
BRS - A 10% rise in the BDI this week, mostly on the back of Panamax rates and improvements in the Supramax market in the Pacific. For the Capes, ra ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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