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Thursday, 17 February 11
UNCERTAINTY AND VOLATILITY - FEARNBULK


Handy
Recovering market as evidenced by the solid USD 16k/day achieved by a handymax from Continent to east Med with scrap. More short period requirements on the market but Owners are resiting the temptation in the hope that markets will recover further in the next coming weeks on the back of positive indexes across all sizes on Monday/Tuesday.

Outlook  :  Uncertainty and volatility. There is continued upward movement in the Pacific region as prompt tonnage remains tight. Supras in S. China are fixed at low teens for trips via Indonesia to India with coal. Supras on WC will see at least USD 20k and EC rates have also improved to about 16k levels for iron ore trips to China. Red Sea; ferts on handymax/ supras are fixed at mid 20´s pmt on voyage bss to WC India.

Panamax
The Panamax market continued its positive trend from last week much driven by increased grain activity out of ECSA and USG. This lead to firming rates in both hemispheres. This week we see  more cargos giving support to the rates, contrary to last weeks´ FFA driven market for short/ long periods. The short period market continued to firm up this week and for LME´s with Sth China delivery owners are getting USD 18.5k-19k. Tarv ´s paying around USD 15k while fronthauls with Cont dely are getting in region of USD 25k daily. Pac rounds are being fixed at around 15k and a backhaul was done on Wednesday at USD 5k. Chrts interested in taking in1-year deals, needs to pay around USD 17k. We find it hard to clearly state that this market will continue firming as we see some pressure from FFA´s and the bigger Capes.

Capesize
Activity is up and fair - but apart from compensating rising bunker costs,spot rates and consequent daily earning are still at levels not sufficient to cover operating expenses. Oversupply of tonnage remains the one factor to which the present crisis is attributable, and sharply accelerated scrapping combined with general slow-steaming appears the only way to bring this segment anywhere near short- and long term equilibrium. Whilst performance failures spread and rumours of financial uncertainty looms over a number of profiled players, average spot earning have improved marginally to come in at USD 7k/day. Widespread "warm"  ayup is expected - for vintage units in particular. A few majors still take period tonnage at huge premiums to spot - but with partial support from paper trades - last exemplified by 178kdwt/built 2010 done for 4-6 months basis delivery S.Korea  prompt at USD 16k.
Source: FEARNBULK



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