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Thursday, 13 January 11
DRY BULK RATES HIT NEW MULTI-MONTH LOWS ON AUSTRALIAS FLOODS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Floods in Australia’s Queensland has seriously disrupted coal shipments and together with a flood of vessels has pushed freight rates for dry bulk carriers to new multi-month lows. As a result, the Baltic Dry Index fell further yesterday to just 1,453 points, losing 1.82% on the day, while the suffering Capesize segment retreated by a further 4.77%.
The BDI has now recorded 21 straight losing sessions, losing almost 34% of its value. According to calculations from John Cotzias, head of N.Cotzias Shipping Group, in 58 sessions spanning at just less of three months, there have been only 10 days, during which the index was positive.
“The Cape index is counting 12 falling days and has overall lost in this period close to 40% of its volume. BDI is currently below levels of 5 Feb 2009 when the index was rising” said Mr. Cotzias. The market hasn’t seen such low levels since November of 2002, except of course the October 2008 market crash.
In a separate analysis, BIMCO’s shipping analyst Peter Sand said that all in all – the worst flooding in Queensland for more than 50 years “is not only bad for Australia, it's also bad for shipping as volumes on coal and iron ore go down considerably - and more vessels are free on the market putting pressure on the spot market for vessels. Average Capesize time charter rate that has been falling since end of November is now down at USD 11,266 per day trading lower every day” said Sand. He went on to state that iron ore which is exported out of West Australia is not directly affected yet even though that area has received much rain also. Lower steel production and thus also lower seaborne volumes of the two key dry bulk commodities is set to impact the market negatively over the next months. Australia is the world's largest overall coal exporter ,No. 2 in thermal coal exports after Indonesia but second to none in coking coal exports. Australia is key global coking coal supplier accounting for 60% of global seaborne exports. Within thermal coal Australia accounts for 20%. Thermal coal is used for power generation and heating, while coking coal is used in the production steel. As we have already seen, coal customers will try to find other ways to satisfy their demand for thermal coal but the real trouble is coking coal - as it is very hard to get from elsewhere. Shortage of Australian coking coal means that the worlds steel producers, primarily located in Asia, can be forced to cut the production of steel and with it also the demand for iron ore. ”A slowdown in steel production and iron ore demand is toxic to dry bulk shipping in general and for the larger vessels, Capesize and Panamax in particular. The iron ore contract prices for Q1-2011 have already been set at 7% higher than the previous quarter - but spot iron ore prices can still fluctuate and will move south on lower demand. China imports 40-50% of its coking coal from Australia. Japan, the world’s largest coking coal importer is heavily impacted also. The flooding may see contract prices for coking coal hiking significantly due to spot prices going sharply up as a result of the tight market. A part of the mechanism behind the contract prices is the spot price development. This may result in coking coal prices moving from USD 225 per tonnes in Q1-2011 up to USD 270-300 per tonnes according to several commodity analysts.
When the mines call force majeure - the steel mills must go to the spot market for coking coal - at a much higher price than the contract price for this important steel production ingredient - if they can get it at all. Alternative sources of coking coal are the US and Canada but reports are that the tight market has impacted prices also there, leading to higher commodity prices. So if coking coal spot goes up on tight supply - iron ore spot price can go down as a consequence of lower demand. A price hike in coking coal will increase the
production cost for steel - in a market already running on low margins” said BIMCO’s analyst.
So where will it go from here? “It is a string of events that cause shipping demand out of Australia to go down. Moreover the market place is plentifully supplied with tonnage so the fact that some of the commodities will be supplied from sources further away will only have very limited impact on the market. The first quarter of 2011 - do not hold great prospects for the dry bulk market - mainly because the oversupply of vessels is getting too heavy even for the "normal" inefficiencies of the market to make impact on the freight rates. The Australian situation is set to affect the market for at least a of couple months - meaning that the situation outlined above will stay a drag on the overall market and freight rates for some time” concluded Sand.
Talking about the potential overcapacity, Cotzias said that there is a total of over 3,500 dry bulk carriers on order pending until 2014 of a total of 250 million tons dwt. “These orders are split chronologically as follows: 1,854 ships are due for 2011 making up a total of 128 mil dwt, 1,106 ships due in 2012 of 87 mil dwt and 360 ships of 30 mil dwt due for 2013-2014. In total there is a massive orderbook only on the Bulkers section and we should not understate the fact that 2011 faces us with more than 55% of the total orderbook and that we should also include in this 114 orders of 4mil dwt that are “carried forward” from 2010”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 04 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TO RANGE BETWEEN 1,700 AND 2,600 POINTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2011, ANALYSTS SAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As we entered 2011, ship owners and analysts, as well as shipbrokers are looking into their “crystal balls” to try to decode the dry bul ...
Monday, 03 January 11
TAXATION FOR COAL MINING COMPANIES IN INDONESIA - A TAX EXPERTS VIEW
COALspot.com - Mrs. Sri Wahyuni Sujono, managing partner of SF Consulting has wrote an exclusive report regarding taxation for coal mining companies ...
Sunday, 02 January 11
JAISWAL TO SEEK COAL MINES IN AFRICA - HINDUSTAN TIMES
Coal Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal will talk with his counterparts in South Africa and Mozambique during his visit from January 5 to secure coal asset ...
Saturday, 01 January 11
COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED 340 MILLION TONS THIS YEAR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Indonesian coal miners expect to produce 340 million tons of coal in 2011, an increase of 23 percent from 275 millio ...
Friday, 31 December 10
STC TO FINALIZE 12 MILLION MT OF COAL IMPORT CONTRACT TO TWO INDIAN AND A DUBAI BASED COAL TRADER - SOURCES
COALspot.com - World's single largest coal import tender floated by STC on behalf of state utility NTPC to finalize its suppliers or already finali ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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