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Tuesday, 04 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TO RANGE BETWEEN 1,700 AND 2,600 POINTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2011, ANALYSTS SAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 As we entered 2011, ship owners and analysts, as well as shipbrokers are looking into their “crystal balls” to try to decode the dry bulk market’s behavior this year. Those who will succeed may benefit in their business. A recent poll of analysts provided some insight as to where the industry’s benchmark will range during the first quarter of 2011.
According to them, the BDI will range from 1,700 to 2,600, with an average of 2,118 points. They also said that Capesize rates will average $26,000/day (range of $20,000 to $35,600), while for Panamaxes the average daily rate is deemed to be $20,000 (low of $15,000 and high of $23,100).
UOB’s analysts appeared to be the most bullish ones in terms of the BDI’s course during the first quarter saying that it will average at 2,600 points, while among the most conservative ones was ABG with a prediction of 1,700 points. Other experts like Drewry Shipping placed the BDI at 2,280 points, while DNB NOR Markets gave an estimate of 1,955 points. Similarly, Macquarie expects Capesize rates to average $22,500/day and Panamaxes $16,000/day. Fearnley’s sees rates for Capesizes at $27,500/day and Panamaxes at $19,800/day, while Oppenheimer predicts rates of $30,500 for Capesizes and $22,000 for Panamaxes. Finally, Nordea said Capesize rates would average $26,000 and Panamaxes $20,000.
Meanwhile, in its latest weekly report, Barry Rogliano Salles said that after a stronger than expected performance in 2010, rates finished on a sombre note in December with the BDI at 1,773 points. Apart from the slump seen in July, this is the lowest level recorded for 2010. Early predictions that Chinese ore imports would continue to drive the market up in 2010 proved incorrect. Official figures show China imported 560.5m tonnes Jan-Nov, compared to 565.8m in the same period in 2009. Among exporters, Australia was the biggest beneficiary, increasing its exports to China by 2.4% year-on-year, while the other major producers Brazil, India and South Africa saw their exports decline approximately 9%, 7% and 12%. However China continues to diversify its ore sources, and many smaller producers such as Iran, Indonesia, Peru and Chile increased their sales during 2010.
Commenting on the Capesize market the Paris-based shipbroker said that it was a very quiet week, with little happening in the final 10 days of the year. “Overall, the the sentiment appeared flat to weakening, and in the futures market short-term prices fell. January Cape 4TC is now trading at just over US$20,000 per day, compared to over US$23,000 in the week before Christmas. However for 2H 2011 rates remain little changed. Ship deliveries slowed in the final fortnight of the year, but we can expect a ‘bunching’ of deliveries in early 2011 as ships completed in December are held over for the new year” said the report.
Similarly, on the Panamax front, this week was also very quiet as a result of the festive season. “The The TA round market hovered in the mid US$20,000s per day and seemed stable, mainly due to the thin number of candidates open in this area and some ECSA cargoes activity. However, ballasters from the Far East and India were apparent and should balance out the market. Out of India, the market was relatively quiet. Goa’s exports were impacted by the truckers’ strike and the iron ore ban continues. The WCI-China route was traded in the mid S$10,000s. The ECI market was relatively quiet except for Haldia. In the Far East, the market did not improve and levels reached US$8-8,500 per day for a Nopac round. The short period activity was sluggish and the last reported fixtures were hanging around the mid US$10,000s for Tess 74 delivery North China or India redelivery worldwide. One-year period candidates were traded around US$16- 17,000 per day” BRS concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 30 December 10
DRY BULK MARKET STAYS SUBDUED AT THE END OF 2010 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dy bulk market failed to cheer ship owners across the board as the year draws to an end, thus bringing mixed feelings ahead of 2011. On one hand ...
Thursday, 30 December 10
KANGAROO RESOURCES BUYS INDONESIAN COAL COMPANY
Australian-listed Kangaroo Resources Ltd. said Wednesday it will buy 99% of the Pakar thermal coal project in East Kalimantan, for A$277 million thr ...
Wednesday, 29 December 10
WEATHER IMPACTS RIO TINTO COAL AUSTRALIAS QUEENSLAND OPERATIONS
Press Release - As a result of severe monsoonal rain in central and northern Queensland, force majeure has been declared on coal sales contracts fro ...
Monday, 27 December 10
ANALYSIS: CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION MISMATCHED WITH DOMESTIC DEMAND
As reported by iStock Analyst, China's coal market has been trapped in a strange cycle. Large coal production bases are facing overcapacity, while ...
Monday, 27 December 10
HUNT FOR OVERSEAS COAL ASSETS TO INTENSIFY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Financial Express reported that, With the Indian economy back on the track after the slowdown, merger and acquisition (M&A) activities in the re ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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