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Tuesday, 04 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TO RANGE BETWEEN 1,700 AND 2,600 POINTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2011, ANALYSTS SAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 As we entered 2011, ship owners and analysts, as well as shipbrokers are looking into their “crystal balls” to try to decode the dry bulk market’s behavior this year. Those who will succeed may benefit in their business. A recent poll of analysts provided some insight as to where the industry’s benchmark will range during the first quarter of 2011.
According to them, the BDI will range from 1,700 to 2,600, with an average of 2,118 points. They also said that Capesize rates will average $26,000/day (range of $20,000 to $35,600), while for Panamaxes the average daily rate is deemed to be $20,000 (low of $15,000 and high of $23,100).
UOB’s analysts appeared to be the most bullish ones in terms of the BDI’s course during the first quarter saying that it will average at 2,600 points, while among the most conservative ones was ABG with a prediction of 1,700 points. Other experts like Drewry Shipping placed the BDI at 2,280 points, while DNB NOR Markets gave an estimate of 1,955 points. Similarly, Macquarie expects Capesize rates to average $22,500/day and Panamaxes $16,000/day. Fearnley’s sees rates for Capesizes at $27,500/day and Panamaxes at $19,800/day, while Oppenheimer predicts rates of $30,500 for Capesizes and $22,000 for Panamaxes. Finally, Nordea said Capesize rates would average $26,000 and Panamaxes $20,000.
Meanwhile, in its latest weekly report, Barry Rogliano Salles said that after a stronger than expected performance in 2010, rates finished on a sombre note in December with the BDI at 1,773 points. Apart from the slump seen in July, this is the lowest level recorded for 2010. Early predictions that Chinese ore imports would continue to drive the market up in 2010 proved incorrect. Official figures show China imported 560.5m tonnes Jan-Nov, compared to 565.8m in the same period in 2009. Among exporters, Australia was the biggest beneficiary, increasing its exports to China by 2.4% year-on-year, while the other major producers Brazil, India and South Africa saw their exports decline approximately 9%, 7% and 12%. However China continues to diversify its ore sources, and many smaller producers such as Iran, Indonesia, Peru and Chile increased their sales during 2010.
Commenting on the Capesize market the Paris-based shipbroker said that it was a very quiet week, with little happening in the final 10 days of the year. “Overall, the the sentiment appeared flat to weakening, and in the futures market short-term prices fell. January Cape 4TC is now trading at just over US$20,000 per day, compared to over US$23,000 in the week before Christmas. However for 2H 2011 rates remain little changed. Ship deliveries slowed in the final fortnight of the year, but we can expect a ‘bunching’ of deliveries in early 2011 as ships completed in December are held over for the new year” said the report.
Similarly, on the Panamax front, this week was also very quiet as a result of the festive season. “The The TA round market hovered in the mid US$20,000s per day and seemed stable, mainly due to the thin number of candidates open in this area and some ECSA cargoes activity. However, ballasters from the Far East and India were apparent and should balance out the market. Out of India, the market was relatively quiet. Goa’s exports were impacted by the truckers’ strike and the iron ore ban continues. The WCI-China route was traded in the mid S$10,000s. The ECI market was relatively quiet except for Haldia. In the Far East, the market did not improve and levels reached US$8-8,500 per day for a Nopac round. The short period activity was sluggish and the last reported fixtures were hanging around the mid US$10,000s for Tess 74 delivery North China or India redelivery worldwide. One-year period candidates were traded around US$16- 17,000 per day” BRS concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 07 January 11
SRI LANKA NEW PORT TO OFFER SHIP FUEL IN MAY - LBO
LOB reported that, The Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA) plans to start bunkering or ship fuel operations at a new port in southern Hambantota in May ...
Friday, 07 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET ON A FREEFALL, AS THE NEW YEAR EARLY DAYS DONT BRING MANY CHEERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market is facing its worst slump in more than two years, falling by 4.75% yesterday to reach 1,544 points, on top of an additional 4.2% ...
Thursday, 06 January 11
OVERSEAS & GENERAL SIGNS AGREEMENT TO EXPAND FOOTPRINT ON COAL LEASE IN INDONESIA - PROACTIVE INVESTORS
Proactive Investors reported that, Overseas & General (ASX: OGL) has entered into a joint operating agreement on the Jambi Coal Lease in Sumatra ...
Thursday, 06 January 11
BANPU EXPECTS ROSY 2011 AS COAL PRICES SKYROCKET - BANGKOK POST
Bangkok Post reported that, Banpu Plc, Asean's largest coal miner, expects minimal impact from the production stoppage at its Daning mine in China ...
Thursday, 06 January 11
COKING COAL CONTRACT PRICE MAY RISE 33% ON AUSTRALIAN FLOODS - BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg reported that, Steelmakers in Asia may be forced to pay as much as 33 percent more for hard coking coal after the worst floods in 50 years ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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