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Tuesday, 04 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TO RANGE BETWEEN 1,700 AND 2,600 POINTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2011, ANALYSTS SAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 As we entered 2011, ship owners and analysts, as well as shipbrokers are looking into their “crystal balls” to try to decode the dry bulk market’s behavior this year. Those who will succeed may benefit in their business. A recent poll of analysts provided some insight as to where the industry’s benchmark will range during the first quarter of 2011.
According to them, the BDI will range from 1,700 to 2,600, with an average of 2,118 points. They also said that Capesize rates will average $26,000/day (range of $20,000 to $35,600), while for Panamaxes the average daily rate is deemed to be $20,000 (low of $15,000 and high of $23,100).
UOB’s analysts appeared to be the most bullish ones in terms of the BDI’s course during the first quarter saying that it will average at 2,600 points, while among the most conservative ones was ABG with a prediction of 1,700 points. Other experts like Drewry Shipping placed the BDI at 2,280 points, while DNB NOR Markets gave an estimate of 1,955 points. Similarly, Macquarie expects Capesize rates to average $22,500/day and Panamaxes $16,000/day. Fearnley’s sees rates for Capesizes at $27,500/day and Panamaxes at $19,800/day, while Oppenheimer predicts rates of $30,500 for Capesizes and $22,000 for Panamaxes. Finally, Nordea said Capesize rates would average $26,000 and Panamaxes $20,000.
Meanwhile, in its latest weekly report, Barry Rogliano Salles said that after a stronger than expected performance in 2010, rates finished on a sombre note in December with the BDI at 1,773 points. Apart from the slump seen in July, this is the lowest level recorded for 2010. Early predictions that Chinese ore imports would continue to drive the market up in 2010 proved incorrect. Official figures show China imported 560.5m tonnes Jan-Nov, compared to 565.8m in the same period in 2009. Among exporters, Australia was the biggest beneficiary, increasing its exports to China by 2.4% year-on-year, while the other major producers Brazil, India and South Africa saw their exports decline approximately 9%, 7% and 12%. However China continues to diversify its ore sources, and many smaller producers such as Iran, Indonesia, Peru and Chile increased their sales during 2010.
Commenting on the Capesize market the Paris-based shipbroker said that it was a very quiet week, with little happening in the final 10 days of the year. “Overall, the the sentiment appeared flat to weakening, and in the futures market short-term prices fell. January Cape 4TC is now trading at just over US$20,000 per day, compared to over US$23,000 in the week before Christmas. However for 2H 2011 rates remain little changed. Ship deliveries slowed in the final fortnight of the year, but we can expect a ‘bunching’ of deliveries in early 2011 as ships completed in December are held over for the new year” said the report.
Similarly, on the Panamax front, this week was also very quiet as a result of the festive season. “The The TA round market hovered in the mid US$20,000s per day and seemed stable, mainly due to the thin number of candidates open in this area and some ECSA cargoes activity. However, ballasters from the Far East and India were apparent and should balance out the market. Out of India, the market was relatively quiet. Goa’s exports were impacted by the truckers’ strike and the iron ore ban continues. The WCI-China route was traded in the mid S$10,000s. The ECI market was relatively quiet except for Haldia. In the Far East, the market did not improve and levels reached US$8-8,500 per day for a Nopac round. The short period activity was sluggish and the last reported fixtures were hanging around the mid US$10,000s for Tess 74 delivery North China or India redelivery worldwide. One-year period candidates were traded around US$16- 17,000 per day” BRS concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 04 February 11
PERTAMINA DENIES KAREN AGUSTIAWAN RESIGNS FROM PERTAMINA
COALspot.com - The President Director of PT Pertamina, Karen Agustiawan reportedly will replace Darwin Saleh as Minister of Energy and Mineral Resou ...
Friday, 04 February 11
ADARO ENERGY FY10 COAL SALES UP 6 PERCENT TO 43.84 MILLION
As reported by insider stories, Indonesian coal miners PT Adaro Energy Tbk has produced 42.20 million tons of coal in 2010, a 4 percent increase com ...
Thursday, 03 February 11
MERCATOR LINES TO INVEST RS 200-250 CRORE ON COAL MINE IN INDONESIA - ECONOMIC TIMES
Economic Times reported that, Mercator Lines, the HK Mittal-controlled shipping-to-mines major, will invest about 200-250 crore (US$ 43.825 - 54.781 ...
Thursday, 03 February 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKS SET TO BOTTOM OUT NIKOS - ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the dry bulk market having lost more than 72% of its value in the last month or so and having retreated to a 2-year low, it seems that the bott ...
Wednesday, 02 February 11
INDONESIA MAY MISS COAL EXPORT TARGET IN 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesian Trade ministry has instructed independent surveyors temporarily not to issue pre-shipment survey report (LS) to the compan ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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