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Thursday, 09 December 10
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR DIRECTION THIS WEEK, AS CAPESIZE SHIPS END THEIR MISFORTUNES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk has began the week on a positive note capitalizing on the positive sentiment which finally prevailed during the last days of the previous week. Still, the question on most people’s lips is whether the current lull in the capesize sector will continue, or if Chinese steel mills decide to make a final push to restock in iron ore before the year ends. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was up by 0.51% to 2,179 points, while the capesize segment was practically unchanged to 2,987 points, rising by a mere four points or 0.13%.

According to shipbrokers’ reports though, Capesize and VLOC ship owners could be in for some hard times as we move forward into 2011. According to N.Cotzias’ latest weekly report, “what we saw as the most interesting pick of the week, was the continued downward return of Capes with 6 continuous downward sessions, which stopped Thursday onwards and turned positive for days, the 9 consecutive positive sessions of the Panamax size segment that turned negative on Friday we note that the Panamax sector poses a great deal of weekly volatility, we also comment on the Supramax sector that after 29 negative sessions count nine consecutive positive runs, and the Handies following closely with a very similar prolonged 34 days continual downhill run, that has already turned into an 8 day positive switch”.

But, Cotzias remains very sceptical regarding the capesize sector and specifically, whether it has found a potential “bottom”, or if it still has room to fall even further. “This negative negative momentum on the large ships has increased the uncertainty and has raised more of our concern about China’s ability to “support” all new ships that “fall in the water” every day.

On the other hand continued deliveries of so many new ships that have been added to the active fleet, is a seriously alarming problem that we feel has not been faced with the amount of seriousness and adequate severity. Many new ships almost 2 ½ ships Bulk Carriers have been delivered each day for the whole year with 11 months completed, and that ends up bringing the active fleet over 70 mil tones tallying a massive total 617 mil tones of carrying capacity. There are still pending for the remainder of 2010 (27 days!!!!) 730 ships of 16.3 mil tones that in theory have to be delivered by end of 2010” said Cotzias, highlighting the oversupply problem of the dry bulk market.

Of course it goes without saying that most of these will not and can’t be delivered later this year and will be transferred to the already strained orderbook waiting for 2011, where the expected dry cargo ships amount to 1851 ships of a total capacity of 129 mil tones. “We are of the considered opinion that there was a significant increase in the world fleet during 2010 and many more analysts feel that this influx of tonnage has “somewhat dampened” the overall positive effects of China’s growing demand. This dampening has kept the freight market to practically semi-mediocre or at the best case to well above sustainability daily levels, and had we had the same amount of tonnage instead of the +70mil dwt fleet we could have seen freight levels of 20-30% above the actual levels. Cancellations and scrapping are the only effective measures we may use against the overcapacity issues, but unless these ships cancelled or scrapped are tripled in volume, the problem will occur and we will just feel that up to now we would have swept the dust under the carpet” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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