We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 25 November 10
ANALYSIS: COAL SECTOR: VALUE EMERGENCE - THE JAKARTA POST
 Coal demand will remain firm due to a build-up of coal-fired power plants in India, China and Indonesia. As a result, we have upgraded our coal price from US$95 per ton to a range of between $100, 105, 108, 110 and 115 per ton, respectively in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (inflation rate of 1 percent thereafter).
Additionally, Indonesia is one of the lowest cost coal producers in the world, which means that coal prices have to adjust with the incremental cost of production of higher-cost structured companies.
Thermal Seaborne coal demand is set to rise by 74 percent to 1,187 million tons in 2025 from 680 million tons in 2010, according to Coaltrans Coal Conference in Amsterdam last month. This is driven by a higher demand from China and India, which currently accounts for about 28 percent of the global thermal coal market.
China, which currently relies on coal to produce 80 percent of its power needs, is installing two new coal-fired power plants per week with capacities of 500 megawatts per plant. This pace will persist at least in the next decade, potentially doubling power capacity by 2020 and adding a 500-gigawatts new coal-fired electricity generation capacity according to the International Energy Agency. We highlight that with China consuming 43 percent of the global thermal coal production, imbalances between its indigenous production and consumption will drive global coal prices higher.
As for India, at present it imports about 8 percent of global coal production. But the number is set to grow to 25 percent by 2015. Indian thermal coal demand is expected to rise 810 million tons, or 131 percent, by 2025, driven by a 158 percent hike in coal-fired power capacity, in line with power demand, which will rise from the current 147 gigawatts to 380 gigawatts by 2025.
Meanwhile, Vietnam, which three years ago was the largest exporter of coal to China, is expected to become a net importer by 2015, putting further pressure on global supply in the medium term. Vietnam currently exports about 50 percent of its production or about 24 million tons, but this will fall to only 3 million tons, despite rising coal production from 48 million tons in 2009 to about 105 million tons in 2025.
Stripping out PT Bayan Resources’ (BYAN’s) price movements, the coal sector has underperformed the market by 9.8 percent year-to-date (ytd). We believe value is emerging, particularly for our top picks, and we raise our sector weighting to overweight.
At this stage, PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) has the highest upside potential based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), helped by the inclusion of the Banjarsari power project in our forecasts. We like PTBA’s railway expansion projects, which will increase PTBA’s railway capacity from 11 million tons currently to 47.7 million tons by 2015 or 82.7 million tons by 2018.
This will increase fourfold PTBA’s production from 12.7 million tons to 52.5 million tons by 2015 or by seven fold to 87.5 million tons by 2018. We also like PTBA for its government link, translating to more secured supply contracts to PLN. Additionally, we like its huge reserves (fives times Indonesia’s coal production), which will pave the way for it to become the second-largest coal producer after BUMI starting in 2018.
This means 33 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earning per share (EPS) in the next five years through 2015. It also has cash reserves of Rp 4.9 trillion with no debt and solid corporate governance. Our second pick is PT Indika Energy or INDY (+27 percent upside), due to Kideco’s strong performance (which contributes 76 percent of its pre-tax profit). This is followed by Adaro Energy (+19 percent), the largest market cap and second-highest average daily turnover after BUMI, which plans to nearly double production from about 42 million tons in 2010 to 80 million tons by 2014.
Surabhi Chopra, The writer is an analyst at PT Bahana Securities Source: The Jakarta Post
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 20 October 10
ADANI THE LARGEST COAL IMPORTER OF INDIA IS NEGOTIATING WITH COAL INDIA LIMITED FOR A SUPPLY AGREEMENT - TOP NEWS
Top News reported that, negotitations are very much on between Adani Enterprises, the biggest coal importer of the country and Coal India Limited, t ...
Wednesday, 20 October 10
UAE FIRM IN INDONESIA RAIL DEAL - GULF NEWS
Gulf News reported that, construction of a 140-kilometre railway in Indonesia, initiated by RAK Minerals and Metals Investments (RMMI) will start ne ...
Wednesday, 20 October 10
CAPESIZES FINDING SUPPORT IN IRON ORE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Although the beginning of the week wasn’t the rosiest one for the dry bulk market, last week proved a cheerful one for dry bulk ship owners, e ...
Saturday, 16 October 10
BDI WAS MARGINALLY UP BY 2.45 PCT LAST WEEK - VISTAAR SHIPPING
COALspot.com: The BDI seemed to lose the moment compared to last week and was marginally by 2.45 pct and closed at 2,762 points.
Also the Cape in ...
Friday, 15 October 10
VALUE ADDED TAX FOR COAL TO RE-INTRODUCE IN INDONESIA
COALspot.com: Indonesian government is drafting a ministerial decree to re-introduce value added tax for coal and mineral. Coalindo weekly news lett ...
|
|
|
Showing 5561 to 5565 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
