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Thursday, 25 November 10
ANALYSIS: COAL SECTOR: VALUE EMERGENCE - THE JAKARTA POST
 Coal demand will remain firm due to a build-up of coal-fired power plants in India, China and Indonesia. As a result, we have upgraded our coal price from US$95 per ton to a range of between $100, 105, 108, 110 and 115 per ton, respectively in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (inflation rate of 1 percent thereafter).
Additionally, Indonesia is one of the lowest cost coal producers in the world, which means that coal prices have to adjust with the incremental cost of production of higher-cost structured companies.
Thermal Seaborne coal demand is set to rise by 74 percent to 1,187 million tons in 2025 from 680 million tons in 2010, according to Coaltrans Coal Conference in Amsterdam last month. This is driven by a higher demand from China and India, which currently accounts for about 28 percent of the global thermal coal market.
China, which currently relies on coal to produce 80 percent of its power needs, is installing two new coal-fired power plants per week with capacities of 500 megawatts per plant. This pace will persist at least in the next decade, potentially doubling power capacity by 2020 and adding a 500-gigawatts new coal-fired electricity generation capacity according to the International Energy Agency. We highlight that with China consuming 43 percent of the global thermal coal production, imbalances between its indigenous production and consumption will drive global coal prices higher.
As for India, at present it imports about 8 percent of global coal production. But the number is set to grow to 25 percent by 2015. Indian thermal coal demand is expected to rise 810 million tons, or 131 percent, by 2025, driven by a 158 percent hike in coal-fired power capacity, in line with power demand, which will rise from the current 147 gigawatts to 380 gigawatts by 2025.
Meanwhile, Vietnam, which three years ago was the largest exporter of coal to China, is expected to become a net importer by 2015, putting further pressure on global supply in the medium term. Vietnam currently exports about 50 percent of its production or about 24 million tons, but this will fall to only 3 million tons, despite rising coal production from 48 million tons in 2009 to about 105 million tons in 2025.
Stripping out PT Bayan Resources’ (BYAN’s) price movements, the coal sector has underperformed the market by 9.8 percent year-to-date (ytd). We believe value is emerging, particularly for our top picks, and we raise our sector weighting to overweight.
At this stage, PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) has the highest upside potential based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), helped by the inclusion of the Banjarsari power project in our forecasts. We like PTBA’s railway expansion projects, which will increase PTBA’s railway capacity from 11 million tons currently to 47.7 million tons by 2015 or 82.7 million tons by 2018.
This will increase fourfold PTBA’s production from 12.7 million tons to 52.5 million tons by 2015 or by seven fold to 87.5 million tons by 2018. We also like PTBA for its government link, translating to more secured supply contracts to PLN. Additionally, we like its huge reserves (fives times Indonesia’s coal production), which will pave the way for it to become the second-largest coal producer after BUMI starting in 2018.
This means 33 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earning per share (EPS) in the next five years through 2015. It also has cash reserves of Rp 4.9 trillion with no debt and solid corporate governance. Our second pick is PT Indika Energy or INDY (+27 percent upside), due to Kideco’s strong performance (which contributes 76 percent of its pre-tax profit). This is followed by Adaro Energy (+19 percent), the largest market cap and second-highest average daily turnover after BUMI, which plans to nearly double production from about 42 million tons in 2010 to 80 million tons by 2014.
Surabhi Chopra, The writer is an analyst at PT Bahana Securities Source: The Jakarta Post
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Friday, 29 October 10
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND DRIVES DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market is posting marginal, yet steady growth this week, with the Baltic Dry Index rising yesterday to 2784 points, up by 0.2%. Both th ...
Wednesday, 27 October 10
TNPL TO AWARD 240,000 MT COAL SUPPLY CONTRACT TO COAL & OIL
COALspot.com: Tamil Nadu Newsprint Papers Limited, Tamil Nadu state owned Newsprint and Printing & Writing Paper producer has opened a coal purc ...
Wednesday, 27 October 10
CHINA AIDS RUSSIA IN DEVELOPING COAL RESOURCES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
People's Daily reported that, Russia will use 6 billion U.S. dollars in loans provided by China to develop coal resources in Sakhalin Island, Elege ...
Wednesday, 27 October 10
MAIDEN COAL SHIPMENTS TO NOBLE RESOURCES - PAN ASIA AUSTRALIA
Press Release :
First Coal Shipments made from Nadvara Coal Project, East Kalimantan
51,616 tonnes delivered from October production &ndas ...
Tuesday, 26 October 10
INDONESIA SHIPPED 5.32 PERCENT LESS COAL IN SEPTEMBER 10
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 21,661,817 MT of coal in September 2010, which is 5.32 percent lesser than Au ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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