We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 25 November 10
ANALYSIS: COAL SECTOR: VALUE EMERGENCE - THE JAKARTA POST
 Coal demand will remain firm due to a build-up of coal-fired power plants in India, China and Indonesia. As a result, we have upgraded our coal price from US$95 per ton to a range of between $100, 105, 108, 110 and 115 per ton, respectively in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (inflation rate of 1 percent thereafter).
Additionally, Indonesia is one of the lowest cost coal producers in the world, which means that coal prices have to adjust with the incremental cost of production of higher-cost structured companies.
Thermal Seaborne coal demand is set to rise by 74 percent to 1,187 million tons in 2025 from 680 million tons in 2010, according to Coaltrans Coal Conference in Amsterdam last month. This is driven by a higher demand from China and India, which currently accounts for about 28 percent of the global thermal coal market.
China, which currently relies on coal to produce 80 percent of its power needs, is installing two new coal-fired power plants per week with capacities of 500 megawatts per plant. This pace will persist at least in the next decade, potentially doubling power capacity by 2020 and adding a 500-gigawatts new coal-fired electricity generation capacity according to the International Energy Agency. We highlight that with China consuming 43 percent of the global thermal coal production, imbalances between its indigenous production and consumption will drive global coal prices higher.
As for India, at present it imports about 8 percent of global coal production. But the number is set to grow to 25 percent by 2015. Indian thermal coal demand is expected to rise 810 million tons, or 131 percent, by 2025, driven by a 158 percent hike in coal-fired power capacity, in line with power demand, which will rise from the current 147 gigawatts to 380 gigawatts by 2025.
Meanwhile, Vietnam, which three years ago was the largest exporter of coal to China, is expected to become a net importer by 2015, putting further pressure on global supply in the medium term. Vietnam currently exports about 50 percent of its production or about 24 million tons, but this will fall to only 3 million tons, despite rising coal production from 48 million tons in 2009 to about 105 million tons in 2025.
Stripping out PT Bayan Resources’ (BYAN’s) price movements, the coal sector has underperformed the market by 9.8 percent year-to-date (ytd). We believe value is emerging, particularly for our top picks, and we raise our sector weighting to overweight.
At this stage, PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) has the highest upside potential based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), helped by the inclusion of the Banjarsari power project in our forecasts. We like PTBA’s railway expansion projects, which will increase PTBA’s railway capacity from 11 million tons currently to 47.7 million tons by 2015 or 82.7 million tons by 2018.
This will increase fourfold PTBA’s production from 12.7 million tons to 52.5 million tons by 2015 or by seven fold to 87.5 million tons by 2018. We also like PTBA for its government link, translating to more secured supply contracts to PLN. Additionally, we like its huge reserves (fives times Indonesia’s coal production), which will pave the way for it to become the second-largest coal producer after BUMI starting in 2018.
This means 33 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earning per share (EPS) in the next five years through 2015. It also has cash reserves of Rp 4.9 trillion with no debt and solid corporate governance. Our second pick is PT Indika Energy or INDY (+27 percent upside), due to Kideco’s strong performance (which contributes 76 percent of its pre-tax profit). This is followed by Adaro Energy (+19 percent), the largest market cap and second-highest average daily turnover after BUMI, which plans to nearly double production from about 42 million tons in 2010 to 80 million tons by 2014.
Surabhi Chopra, The writer is an analyst at PT Bahana Securities Source: The Jakarta Post
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 24 December 10
DRY BULK OWNERS COULD SOON RECONSIDER SCRAPPING OLDER VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the dry bulk market close to its lowest levels in months and indeed close to 2010 lows, ship owners could be heading towards scrapyards in a bi ...
Thursday, 23 December 10
SOUTHGOBI RESOURCES CLOSES STRATEGIC INVESTMENT IN ASPIRE MINING LIMITED
Press Release – SouthGobi Resources Ltd. (TSX: SGQ, HK: 1878), announced today that it has completed the private placement with Aspire Mining ...
Thursday, 23 December 10
CESC EYES COAL MINES IN INDONESIA, S AFRICA - TEHELKA
Company has already set a target of adding 6,000 MW power generation by the end of the 12th Plan in 2017
Tehelka reported that, CESC Ltd, the fla ...
Thursday, 23 December 10
SANTA CLAUSE DID NOT COME EARLY THIS YEAR - FEARNBULK
Handy
Not much fresh enquiry this week and quite dead in Bl.Sea/Med. Nevertheless ...
Thursday, 23 December 10
STERLITE ENERGY LIMITED TO BUY 0.6 MLN MT OF COAL FOR 2011
COALspot.com - Sterlite Energy Limited (SEL) is a part of Vedanta Resources plc , a London listed FTSE 100 diversified metals and mining major with ...
|
|
|
Showing 5471 to 5475 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
