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Thursday, 25 November 10
ANALYSIS: COAL SECTOR: VALUE EMERGENCE - THE JAKARTA POST
 Coal demand will remain firm due to a build-up of coal-fired power plants in India, China and Indonesia. As a result, we have upgraded our coal price from US$95 per ton to a range of between $100, 105, 108, 110 and 115 per ton, respectively in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (inflation rate of 1 percent thereafter).
Additionally, Indonesia is one of the lowest cost coal producers in the world, which means that coal prices have to adjust with the incremental cost of production of higher-cost structured companies.
Thermal Seaborne coal demand is set to rise by 74 percent to 1,187 million tons in 2025 from 680 million tons in 2010, according to Coaltrans Coal Conference in Amsterdam last month. This is driven by a higher demand from China and India, which currently accounts for about 28 percent of the global thermal coal market.
China, which currently relies on coal to produce 80 percent of its power needs, is installing two new coal-fired power plants per week with capacities of 500 megawatts per plant. This pace will persist at least in the next decade, potentially doubling power capacity by 2020 and adding a 500-gigawatts new coal-fired electricity generation capacity according to the International Energy Agency. We highlight that with China consuming 43 percent of the global thermal coal production, imbalances between its indigenous production and consumption will drive global coal prices higher.
As for India, at present it imports about 8 percent of global coal production. But the number is set to grow to 25 percent by 2015. Indian thermal coal demand is expected to rise 810 million tons, or 131 percent, by 2025, driven by a 158 percent hike in coal-fired power capacity, in line with power demand, which will rise from the current 147 gigawatts to 380 gigawatts by 2025.
Meanwhile, Vietnam, which three years ago was the largest exporter of coal to China, is expected to become a net importer by 2015, putting further pressure on global supply in the medium term. Vietnam currently exports about 50 percent of its production or about 24 million tons, but this will fall to only 3 million tons, despite rising coal production from 48 million tons in 2009 to about 105 million tons in 2025.
Stripping out PT Bayan Resources’ (BYAN’s) price movements, the coal sector has underperformed the market by 9.8 percent year-to-date (ytd). We believe value is emerging, particularly for our top picks, and we raise our sector weighting to overweight.
At this stage, PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) has the highest upside potential based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), helped by the inclusion of the Banjarsari power project in our forecasts. We like PTBA’s railway expansion projects, which will increase PTBA’s railway capacity from 11 million tons currently to 47.7 million tons by 2015 or 82.7 million tons by 2018.
This will increase fourfold PTBA’s production from 12.7 million tons to 52.5 million tons by 2015 or by seven fold to 87.5 million tons by 2018. We also like PTBA for its government link, translating to more secured supply contracts to PLN. Additionally, we like its huge reserves (fives times Indonesia’s coal production), which will pave the way for it to become the second-largest coal producer after BUMI starting in 2018.
This means 33 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earning per share (EPS) in the next five years through 2015. It also has cash reserves of Rp 4.9 trillion with no debt and solid corporate governance. Our second pick is PT Indika Energy or INDY (+27 percent upside), due to Kideco’s strong performance (which contributes 76 percent of its pre-tax profit). This is followed by Adaro Energy (+19 percent), the largest market cap and second-highest average daily turnover after BUMI, which plans to nearly double production from about 42 million tons in 2010 to 80 million tons by 2014.
Surabhi Chopra, The writer is an analyst at PT Bahana Securities Source: The Jakarta Post
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Wednesday, 02 February 11
BAYAN TO SUPPLY COAL TO TP UTILITIES LTD
Insider Stories has reportd that, Indonesia's one of the leading coal miner PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) owned by businessman Dato' Low Tuck ...
Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvi ...
Monday, 31 January 11
S. SUMATRA COAL RAILWAY TO BE COMPLETED ON SCHEDULE - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, despite land acquisition problems, state coal mining company PT Bukit Asam is upbeat that the development of a railw ...
Monday, 31 January 11
COAL MINER PTBA TO DRIVE OUTPUT WITH ACQUISITIONS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, State coal company Perusahaan Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam said its output would increase 34 percent to 17.6 million ...
Saturday, 29 January 11
PRESSURE ON SHIPPING MARKET MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MID FEBRUARY 2011
COALspot.com - The BDI continues to drop and saw a drop of about 5 pct this week closing at 1370 points.
In May 2010 the BDI touched 4,209 ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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