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Thursday, 25 November 10
ANALYSIS: COAL SECTOR: VALUE EMERGENCE - THE JAKARTA POST
 Coal demand will remain firm due to a build-up of coal-fired power plants in India, China and Indonesia. As a result, we have upgraded our coal price from US$95 per ton to a range of between $100, 105, 108, 110 and 115 per ton, respectively in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (inflation rate of 1 percent thereafter).
Additionally, Indonesia is one of the lowest cost coal producers in the world, which means that coal prices have to adjust with the incremental cost of production of higher-cost structured companies.
Thermal Seaborne coal demand is set to rise by 74 percent to 1,187 million tons in 2025 from 680 million tons in 2010, according to Coaltrans Coal Conference in Amsterdam last month. This is driven by a higher demand from China and India, which currently accounts for about 28 percent of the global thermal coal market.
China, which currently relies on coal to produce 80 percent of its power needs, is installing two new coal-fired power plants per week with capacities of 500 megawatts per plant. This pace will persist at least in the next decade, potentially doubling power capacity by 2020 and adding a 500-gigawatts new coal-fired electricity generation capacity according to the International Energy Agency. We highlight that with China consuming 43 percent of the global thermal coal production, imbalances between its indigenous production and consumption will drive global coal prices higher.
As for India, at present it imports about 8 percent of global coal production. But the number is set to grow to 25 percent by 2015. Indian thermal coal demand is expected to rise 810 million tons, or 131 percent, by 2025, driven by a 158 percent hike in coal-fired power capacity, in line with power demand, which will rise from the current 147 gigawatts to 380 gigawatts by 2025.
Meanwhile, Vietnam, which three years ago was the largest exporter of coal to China, is expected to become a net importer by 2015, putting further pressure on global supply in the medium term. Vietnam currently exports about 50 percent of its production or about 24 million tons, but this will fall to only 3 million tons, despite rising coal production from 48 million tons in 2009 to about 105 million tons in 2025.
Stripping out PT Bayan Resources’ (BYAN’s) price movements, the coal sector has underperformed the market by 9.8 percent year-to-date (ytd). We believe value is emerging, particularly for our top picks, and we raise our sector weighting to overweight.
At this stage, PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) has the highest upside potential based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), helped by the inclusion of the Banjarsari power project in our forecasts. We like PTBA’s railway expansion projects, which will increase PTBA’s railway capacity from 11 million tons currently to 47.7 million tons by 2015 or 82.7 million tons by 2018.
This will increase fourfold PTBA’s production from 12.7 million tons to 52.5 million tons by 2015 or by seven fold to 87.5 million tons by 2018. We also like PTBA for its government link, translating to more secured supply contracts to PLN. Additionally, we like its huge reserves (fives times Indonesia’s coal production), which will pave the way for it to become the second-largest coal producer after BUMI starting in 2018.
This means 33 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earning per share (EPS) in the next five years through 2015. It also has cash reserves of Rp 4.9 trillion with no debt and solid corporate governance. Our second pick is PT Indika Energy or INDY (+27 percent upside), due to Kideco’s strong performance (which contributes 76 percent of its pre-tax profit). This is followed by Adaro Energy (+19 percent), the largest market cap and second-highest average daily turnover after BUMI, which plans to nearly double production from about 42 million tons in 2010 to 80 million tons by 2014.
Surabhi Chopra, The writer is an analyst at PT Bahana Securities Source: The Jakarta Post
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Friday, 11 February 11
DRY BULK MARKET HEATING UP ON FRESH CARGO DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market is on a high this week, with owners of smaller vessels turning their attention towards the spot market, in order to take advanta ...
Thursday, 10 February 11
SUPRA RATES IMPROVED A LITTLE OVER US$ 6K BSS N. CHINA DELIVERY FOR INDO-INDIA AND THAILAND ROUNDS - FEARNBULK
Handy
Atl is still weak with little fresh enquiry and an accumulation of spot tonnage.Owners are reluctant to send tonnage thru Suez due to uncert ...
Thursday, 10 February 11
BUKIT ASAM EXPECTS ABOVE RP 3 TRIO PROFIT
The state-owned coal miner PT Tambang Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) expects to reach 2011's net profit above Rp 3 trillion (US$ 336,322,568) from above Rp2 ...
Wednesday, 09 February 11
INDONESIA ALLOWED 60 COAL TRADING COMPANIES TO EXPORT COAL
COALspot.com - A temporary ban imposed on coal traders in January has lifted this week. As of today 60coal trading companies were allowed to resume ...
Tuesday, 08 February 11
INDIA'S SIMHAPURU TARGETS S.AFRICAN COAL - ECONOMIC TIMES
Economic Times reported that, India's Simhapuri Energy , a unit of the Madhucon Group , wants to buy new or existing collieries in South Africa fro ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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