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Wednesday, 24 November 10
COAL PRODUCTION PREDICTED TO CLIMB IN SUNNIER 2011 - THE JAKARTA GLOBE


The Jakarta Globe reported that, Indonesia’s coal producers are expected to increase output by 13 percent in 2011, thanks to predicted better weather. An extended rainy season this year saw coal production reach 300 million tons, below target.

The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) had earlier targeted coal production to hit 320 million tons this year. With better weather, coal production should reach 340 million tons in 2011, a 4.1 percent increase over the government’s estimate.

Higher coal production coupled with near record-high prices will translate into better earnings for coal companies in 2011, according to market analysts.

The country’s second-largest coal company, Adaro Energy, aims to produce 48 million tons next year, an increase of just 0.6 percent from this year.

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Through September this year, Adaro recorded a profit of $1.98 billion, an increase of 6 percent over the same period last year.

Bumi Resources, the country’s largest coal producer, is on the other hand looking at boosting production by 10 percent from its current level of 61 million tons.

Bumi accounts for 23 percent of the country’s total production.

Without quoting figures, Dileep Srivastava, head of investor relations at Bumi, said the company hoped for higher gross sales revenue in 2011 and that the company would exceed the $4.2 billion it recorded this year.

Coal prices are expected to average between $80 and $90 next year, up from $70 this year.

He said with growing demand from India and China, Bumi would expand its market to these countries.

“According to the International Energy Agency, the world’s coal consumption will grow 2.6 percent per annum. China and India will grow faster for their needs,” Srivastava said.

China is expected to consume 50 million tons of coal in 2011 and 60 million tons in 2015. India’s thermal coal demand is forecast to be 63 million tons in 2011 and 108 million in 2015.

Both countries are expected to increase their imports of coal from Indonesia as neither is currently able to satisfy demand from domestic production.

While this spells good news for Indonesian coal producers, they are still required to sell 24.1 percent of their production locally, primarily to state-owned power utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara.

Local coal consumption, however is expected to rise significantly as the government’s 10,000 megawatt power plant project gathers steam.

Indonesia’s coal companies have also been hotly sought after by global investors.

Last week, global financier Nathaniel Rothschild paid $3 billion for stakes in two of the country’s largest coal mining companies.

Rothschild bought a 25 percent stake in Bumi Resources and a 75 percent stake in Berau Coal, the fifth-largest coal producer in the country through its London-listed Vallar.

The move took industry experts by surprise as it will allow the powerful Bakrie Group, the parent company of Bumi Resources, to become the largest combined shareholder in Vallar, which will be renamed Bumi.

The deal also reflected the global nature of the coal industry and the worldwide hunt for coal assets.

The deal looks to be a masterstroke given the upward trend for coal prices and the high expected returns the investment should bear.

The deal will also bring together Bumi Resources and Berau Coal’s production, which is estimated to reach as much as 140 million tons a year by 2013.

The combined company will be the largest thermal coal supplier to China.
Source: The Jakarta Globe



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