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Friday, 19 November 10
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE ROPES WITH BDI PLUNGING TO 2,164 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


With the panamax markets suffering the most this week, but a ray of hope for the capesize market, which appears to be stabilizing after days of falls, the dry bulk market is fighting for a revival. Yesterday, the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) kept its downward trend, ending down by 1.10 percent to 2,164 points and as a result, it has now been falling for 16 straight sessions. The index has fallen by more than 20 percent since the beginning of this demise, which was on the 28th of October.

Still, some positive development could be seen by the change of tide in the capesize market, where sentiment is coming back, as proven by the past couple of days of trading, when capesize managed to end their fall and even post some slight gains. But it wasn’t iron ore demand (which is still subdued) that trigerred the change, but instead it wal rising coal demand.

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According to Fearnley’s latest weekly report, “after a week with weaker rates and a negative sentiment, the bottom seems to have been reached in the capesize sector around low usd 10s pmt for west Australia to China and around usd 27 pmt for Tubarao/Qingdao. The main reason why we  seeing rates more stable, is a more balanced supply and demand in the Atlantic and finally more TA coal cargoes. As winter is arriving, increased coal trade is further expected. However fronthaul cargoes account Vale along with spot fronthaul cargoes account Chinese is more or less none existing. Period activity and rates in general will remain dull until this change” said the report.

As for the Panamax, the “market continued its nervous tendency with rates still slipping. Last week LMEs fixed in the usd 17000 level for Atlantic biz, now with more spot tonnage open this week, the fixing levels hovering in the low usd 15000. The ballasters from India/Pacific Ocean are still fighting with the tonnage in the Atlantic for fronthaul cargoes, which pushing the rates down around $1500, to high $25000 levels. In the east the rates continued to slide, which gave Pacific rounds levels at usd 18000, down $3000. Backhauls remains more or less unchanged at $11000” said Fearnley’s.

Meanwhile, in a mid-week note released from Jeffrey Landsberg, analyst with Commodore Research & Consultancy, there’a another mention on the factor of Indian iron ore. Commodore had said early this week, that a surprising number of vessels was chartered to export iron ore form India last week, with 16 vessels in total. This represents a sharp increase from only three vessels chartered to haul Indian iron ore during the previous week and up significantly from a trailing four week average of 5 vessels.  Last week actually marked the largest number of vessels chartered to haul Indian iron ore in any single week this year - an impressive feat considering the current downturn in the market.

“So far this week, only 2 vessels have been chartered to haul Indian iron ore. Indian iron ore fixture activity has returned to levels seen before last week's surge.  The Karnataka iron ore export ban remains intact - but last week's surge in Indian iron ore fixtures remains intriguing.  Since such a large increase in Indian iron ore fixtures came to the market, it was possible that signs were surfacing of an end to the Karnataka iron ore export ban.  This is not the case yet. The Karnataka iron ore export ban continues, and the sudden surge in Indian iron ore fixtures has ended” said Commodore.

Another issue that is troubling ship owners and ship brokers alike is the speculation that China will raise interest rates, maybe even today (Friday), on an effort to tame inflation and an overheating of the econonmy. This development could very well result in a reduction of iron ore imports, which could lead freight rates to even lower ground. Meanwhile, as has been the case each times the BDI falls to new lows, some ship owners are contemplating phasing out their oldest dry bulk carriers. This could lead to an easing off of oversupply issues, which have become more evident than ever during the second half of the year.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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