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Wednesday, 17 November 10
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR SUPPORT IN COAL TRADES AND INDIAN IRON ORE EXPORTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping reported that, the dry bulk market is lacking support to end its 13-day slide, as evidenced by Monday’s session of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which ended with the main index down by 2.25% to 2,261 points. A similar fall occurred last Friday, which has now brought the market down to three-month low. Capesizes and Panamaxes were the main “losers” of Monday’s new drop. Nevertheless, with Indian iron ore exports recovering , the market offset part of last week’s losses, since a surprising number of vessels were chartered. According to Commodore Research, total of 16 vessels were chartered to haul Indian iron ore last week, an “explosion” compared to just 3 vessels from the previous week and up significantly from the trailing four week average of 5 vessels. Last week marked the largest number of vessels chartered to haul Indian iron ore in any single week this year. “The vast majority of the Indian iron ore fixtures were for supramax vessels; supramax rates are very likely to find support if this trend continues. So far, the Karnataka iron ore export ban remains intact - but the surge in fixtures could possibly be an indication that the ban will soon be repealed” said the report.

Still, brokers quoted by Reuters said there was a build-up in capesize availability and less chartering activity this week due to slower Chinese ore imports, which was acting as a drag on capesize rates. The pressure was being compounded by freight derivatives, known as paper, contract selling.

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Meanwhile, another factor which could seriously affect the dry bulk market in the coming weeks and months is the looming Chinese coal shortage. Chinese authorities are expecting a moderate shortage of thermal coal in the upcoming months, with coal supplies likely to be extremely tight in January 2011. Chinese coal demand normally peaks in January due to cold temperatures and a seasonal low in hydropower output. Chinese electricity consumption has declined as the government intended - but going forward, consumption will likely begin to increase again as the nation enters winter. “We continue to expect that Chinese coal imports will set new records in the upcoming months. Our conservative estimates anticipate that Chinese coal imports will total about 16.75mt in November and 17.25mt in December” reported Commodore.

In terms of Chinese steel production, steel mills produced about 50.3 million tons of crude steel in October, an increase of 2.35mt (5%) from 47.95mt produced in September. Steel production has increased as we expected; the 50.3mt actually slightly exceeded our forecast. According to Commodore, the moderate increase in steel production comes as a relief to many participants who were worried that Chinese steel production would remain at low levels due to the ongoing electricity restrictions on steel mills. Just two months ago, Chinese mills produced 51.64mt of crude steel, but production decreased by 7% in September once mill.

started receiving less electricity. Going forward, Chinese steel mills will continue to receive reduced allocations of electricity to due emission concerns and electricity shortages - but steel production will likely remain above September’s low (the 47.95mt of crude steel produced by Chinese steel mills was the lowest amount produced since December 2009). Prospects for near-term steel production have also become more encouraging due to the large amount of Chinese iron ore fixtures reported last week, and due to Chinese steel stockpiles declining for a fourth consecutive week.

As for shipowners’ moves in the second hand market, last week ended with 38 newbuilding orders, with strong activity, as shipbroker Golden Destiny reported. At the same time, the S&P momentum in the tanker continues to remain strong with 9 vessels reported to have changed hands while bulkcarrier transactions although at lower level are still popular. In the secondhand market, 22 vessels reported to have changed hands this week equalling a total amount of money invested around of $267,400,000, with 6 transactions reported on private terms. In terms of reported number of transactions, the S&P activity has been marked with a 33% negative w-o-w change while has been marked with a positive change of 16%  comparable with previous year’s weekly S&P activity. The bulkcarrier and tanker sector attracted most interest from the investors’ side, with an investment capital of $ 234,900,000, around 88% share of the total invested capital in the S&P secondhand market.

The Greek presence has been noticed this week only in 2 transactions reported in the secondhand and 2 in the newbuilding market. The preference in the secondhand market was towards a handysize bulkcarrier and an Anchor Handling Supply Vessel from the Offshore sector and in the newbuilding market in the subpanamax container sector, while the total invested capital was around $ 39,000,000 mil and $ 104,000,000 mil respectively.
Source:
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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