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Saturday, 06 November 10
DRY BULK MARKET LACKING SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN CURRENT LEVELS, BUT PANAMAX OWNERS ARE MORE FORTUNATE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


Posting its fifth straight losing session, the dry bulk market benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was down yesterday by another 1.26% to 2510 points, as the market doesn’t seem able to find the necessary support to stay afloat. The Capesize segment of the market was down by 1.21%, while all other smaller ship markets were also on the decline. Analysts have highlighted the fact of waning China iron ore buying which is adding pressure to capesize rates, while all indications point to further downside in the medium term as is evident by the freight futures market.

According to shiprboker Fearnley’s, capesize market sentiment for this week was definitely negative. The physical market started to drop, led by a lack of activity in the Atl. The lack of fresh demand on the T/A route combined with the absence of second half of November front haul business put an effective stopper on the market. Where we saw northern Atlantic demand commanding high rates, the Brazil route was never able to compete and now we have seen re-let business concluded at between usd 28 and 29 pmt for Brazil to China.

In the Pacific the major miners successfully bought the market down well into the usd 11.00 mark for W.Australia cargos, but one player seems to have been caught out and has paid a premium for very early vessels. On the coal side there was a flurry of Chinese demand for S.African material, but with the subsequent rise in the FoB price to a 6 month high, further spot sales have dwindled and as such ballasters will have to rely on Brazil, which is looking thin for end Nov demand” said the shipbrokers’ weekly report.

Meanwhile, in the Panamax front, things don’t appear much different, despite last week’s gains. “The Panamax market still suffers from low activity and little demand as rates were sliding after the short upturn last week. The Atlantic is still weak with oversupply of tonnage although there are less ballasters coming in from the FEast. US Gulf grains export still active with fronthaul fixtures in the 27k range but TA rounds sliding slowly to 17k. In the Pacific the market is supported by more fresh requirements and a better balance for available tonnage.

Typically Pacific fixtures hovering around 19k mark, but better figures achieved for Aussie and India business. The period market has been slow with an almost flat curve from 4-6 months up to 2 years around the 22k level. FFA gradually falling in anticipation of lower freight rates going forward. Despite a still bearish sentiment there is an increasing opinion there is support at current levels with room for a short term coming improvement’’ said Fearnley’s.

Indeed, it seems that Panamax owners have more to cheer for, despite this week’s less than “happy-go-lucky” market sentiment. According to Jeffrey Landsberg, an analyst with Commodore Research & Consultancy, Asian thermal coal demand has remained robust and panamax rates are beginning to find support. Going forward, we expect panamax rates will find more support and continue to expect that panamax congestion at Australian and Indonesian coal ports will increase significantly by the middle of November.

Our expectation for an increase in congestion is due to a large amount of panamax vessels having been chartered in October to export thermal coal from Australian and Indonesia ports.
So far this week, a total of 14 vessels have been chartered to ship thermal coal to China (last week saw a robust 15 vessels chartered to ship thermal coal to China). A large amount of vessels continue to be chartered to export thermal coal to other Asian buyers as well, with Indian thermal coal demand remaining extremely robust. Temperatures in northern China (including Beijing) are expected to decline considerably beginning on Sunday.

A cold front will be affecting the region during most of next week” concluded Landsberg.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

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