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Thursday, 04 November 10
CAPE SIZE SENTIMENT FOR THIS WEEK WAS NEGATIVE - FEARNBULK


Handy
The  Atlantic  markets  remain  flat  and  lackluster.  High  volume  of  tonnage availability.  Lack  of  cargoes  in  BSea/Med/Cont  while  the  USG  remains  flat with  little  cargoes  (rates  for  hss  for  Supras  have  dropped  at  least  US$  2  to around  US$  56  pmt  in  one  week).  There  seems  to  be  more  stems  in  Dec dates.  There  is  suddenly  a  lack  of  confidence  going  forward  and  a  lot  of charterers  are  now  holding  back.  Outlook:  flat.  The  slow  and  low  activity continues  with  Supras  particularly  suffering  from  the  decreased  export  of i.ore  from  India  as  a  result  of  the  export  ban  in  Karnataka  State.  Owners  are chasing  charterers  in  order  to  find  vessel  employment  whether  preferred business  or  not,  due  to  the  continued  tonnage  build  up  in  the  Far East, especially  in  N. China,  with  a  lack  of  Nopac  and  Indo  coal  cargoes.  On  the short  period  side  with  the  negative  sentiment  in  the  air  vessels  are  being fixed  on  TCT  basis  rather  than  on  period.

Panamax
The  Pmax  market  still  suffer  from  low  activity  and  little  demand  as  rates  were sliding  after  the  short  upturn  last  week.  The  Atlantic  is  still  weak  with oversupply  of  tonnage  although  there  are  less  ballasters  coming  in  from  the FEast.  US  Gulf  grains  export  still  active  with  fronthaul  fixtures  in  the  27k range  but  TA  rounds  sliding  slowly  to  17k.  In  the  Pacific  the  market  is supported  by  more  fresh  requirements  and  a  better  balance  for  available tonnage.  Typically  Pacific  fixtures  hovering  around  19k  mark,  but  better figures  achieved  for  Aussie  and  India  business.  The  period  market  has  been slow  with  an  almost  flat  curve  from  4-6  months  up  to  2  years  around  the 22k  level.  FFA  gradually  falling  in  anticipation  of  lower  freight  rates  going forward.  Despite  a  still  bearish  sentiment  there  is  an  increasing  opinion  there is  support  at  current  levels  with  room  for  a  short  term  coming  improvement.

Cape size
Sentiment  for  this  week  was  definitely  negative.  The  physical  market  started to  drop,  led  by  a  lack  of  activity  in  the  Atl.  The  lack  of  fresh  demand  on  the T/A  route  combined  with  the  absence  of  2nd  half  Nov  front  haul  business put  an  effective  stopper  on  the  market.  Where  we  saw  northern  Atl  demand commanding  high  rates,  the  Brazil  route  was  never  able  to  compete  and  now we  have  seen  re-let  business  concluded  at  between  US$  28  and  29  pmt  for Brazil  to  China.  In  the  Pacific  the  major  miners  successfully  bought  the market  down  well  into  the  US$  11.00  mark  for  W. Australia  cargos,  but  one player  seems  to  have  been  caught  out  and  has  paid  a  premium  for  very  early vessels.  On  the  coal  side  there  was  a  flurry  of  Chinese  demand  for  S. African material,  but  with  the  subsequent  rise  in  the  FoB  price  to  a  6  month  high, further  spot  sales  have  dwindled  and  as  such  ballasters  will  have  to  rely  on Brazil,  which  is  looking  thin  for  end  Nov  demand.
Source: FearnBulk

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