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Friday, 29 October 10
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND DRIVES DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market is posting marginal, yet steady growth this week, with the Baltic Dry Index rising yesterday to 2784 points, up by 0.2%. Both the capesize and the panamax markets were higher, on signs of growing coal demand from China, a trend which boosted the panamax market in particular. At the same time a healthy iron ore demand again from Chinese steelmakers has helped the capesize segment retain its recent gains.  According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Fearnley’s “the Panamax market took a turn this week with rates increasing in both hemispheres. The FFA market helped the period market with rising values on Monday and flattened a bit on Tuesday. It is especially the shortage in prompt positions that push the rates upwards and in the Pacific several owners ballast into the USG helping the Pacific market further. The Pacific round voyages are now done in the region of low/mid 20´s while the Tarv´s are being fixed in the region of high teens. Fronthauls fetching high 20´s and for the short periods owners are very bullish asking ard mid 20´s. We expect the market to continue its strengthening as the Cape rates continue to increase and we see more split cargoes being quoted” said the broker.

Meanwhile, Petter Rishovd, head of commodities with Pareto Securities was quoted by Reuters as saying that “over the last few weeks we’ve seen very strong capesize fixtures. People are talking about a cold winter in China and we see more coal going to China on panamaxes and that will definitely help that market. It does not seem like the spot market will collapse," Rishovd said.

Commenting on the capesize market, Fearnley’s said that after a continued stable and firm Cape market, it started to break though the upwards resistance level of USD 40k daily for spot cargos in the Pacific. “The BCI has risen from 4363 to 4461, an average T/C improvement of USD 667/day. This surprisingly as Vale concluded the business they were planning for November by Tuesday last week, and have since been absent from the market. The Atlantic market has continued to pay a premium over the Pacific, but volumes have been low with good balance between tonnage and demand. What has driven the fronthaul T/C market has been the N.Atlantic ore market with several Narvik and St. Lawrence cargos being fixed at rates close to USD 70k, a level Brazil has not been able to compete with. In the Pacific, the Miners have continued to be active and although the Atlantic is now showing signs of softening, this market is still moving upwards, and rates in the upper USD 12´s are being paid for W.Australia cargos - this equates to USD 41k/day” concluded the shipbroker’s report.

So far so good then for the market, but one can’t help but notice that ship demolition activity has dropped dramatically as shipping rates rebounded to profitable levels. According to a Morningstar report, “through the first nine months of 2010, owners have scrapped approximately 4.2 million deadweight tons of capacity, or about 470,000 tons per month. This figure compares to nearly 820,000 tons scrapped monthly in 2009, on average, and 433,000 tons per month in 2008. Although nearly 15% of the world's fleet is older than 25 years (a typical life of a vessel), we continue to believe that scrapping will play the part of a buffer against prolonged hampered rates rather than a catalyst toward astronomical rate hikes.

When we combine all of these figures, we think that even if the dry-bulk shipping industry sees increased vessel demolition combined with cancellations and slippage that reach 50% of the scheduled deliveries, the fleet is slated to climb more than 10% in 2011. More worrisome, the expected drop-off in supply growth beginning in 2012 and beyond could face pressure if owners continue to order in abundance” said the analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping

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