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Wednesday, 22 September 10
DRY BULK MARKET SENTIMENT TURNS SOUTH AS IRON ORE DEMAND DECLINES


The dry bulk market has once again turned the tide, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) turning south during the previous week, a pattern noted on Monday as well. The main reason for this was the significant decrease in iron ore fixtures. Yesterday, the BDI ended down by 48 points to 2628, while the capesize segment, which traditionally is serving the iron ore market, was down by 92 points to 3389. According to the latest weekly report by Commodore Research, 24 ore fixtures were reported last week, a decline from 33 ore fixtures of the previous week. “Only 12 of last week’s ore fixtures were for capesize vessels, a decline from 24 capesize vessels chartered to haul iron ore during the previous week. Demand for panamax vessels remained firm due to strong demand for coal from Asian importers, but panamax rates came under a large amount of pressure due to the sudden turn in sentiment (discussed in more detail below). Rates for supramax and handysize vessels were able to hold steady due to solid demand for grain and minor bulk cargo” said Commodore.

In terms of spot charter activity, a total of 120 trips were reported (8 less than the previous week), while an additional 17 period fixtures (14 less than the week before) also came to show how much smaller was cargo demand. According to the report, “last week’s sharp decline in period chartering activity is a clear indication of sentiment turning negative due to the Chinese government’s decision to restrict power allocation to steel mills. The 17 period fixtures were down sharply from the trailing four week average of 32 fixtures”. Commenting on the current state of the market, Commodore said the following: “total spot chartering activity remained firm last week despite a decrease in iron ore fixtures. Capesize freight rates are being affected by restrictions in China that have reduced electricity allocation to steel mills. Panamax rates have been partially affected by these restrictions as well, with negative sentiment caused by the restrictions being a factor behind their recent decline. A large amount of panamax vessels continue to be chartered to export coal to Asian buyers however. A higher than usual amount of panamaxes have also been chartered to haul iron ore.

Sentiment has turned negative. Last week’s 17 period fixtures were the lowest amount of weekly period fixtures reported since the week ending July 16. At that time, spot rates were near 2010 lows. Market players have been spooked by the recent decision by the Chinese government to reduce electricity allocation to Chinese steel mills. Their fears are certainly warranted. It remains to be seen how much and how long Chinese steel production will be affected by the electricity restrictions. The restrictions will continue to represent a significant threat to near-term dry bulk freight rates” concluded the report.

Meanwhile, in a separate report by Golden Destiny on the sale and purchase front, it was noted that newbuilding activity rose by 61.2% on a week-to-week basis. As a result of the BDI negative territory, just six dry bulk carriers reportedly changed hands, a weekly drop of 50%. In total the week ended with “15 vessels reported to have changed hands equalling a total amount of money invested around $181,250,000, two secondhand transactions reported on private terms. In the demolition market, 7 vessels have been headed to the scrap yards of total deadweight 236,806 tons, while in 2009 3 vessels reported for scrap indicating a positive yearly change of around 133%.The highest activity has been recorded once again in the newbuilding market with 50 vessels reported to have been ordered equalling a total deadweight around 1,868,755 tons, while at similar week of 2009 only 2 orders have been reported in the offshore sector. In terms of reported number of transactions, the bulk carrier sector domains in the newbulidng business holding around a 52% share of the market with kamsarmax being the most popular vessel type. The Greek presence has calmed down significantly this week in the secondhand market as only 1 transaction reported in the bulk carrier sector equalling a total amount invested around US$ 22,000,000 while the investments of Greeks in the newbuilding sector continue with a remarkable post panamax order in the container sector. In total, 7 units have been ordered by Greeks equalling a total invested capital around US$ 304,978,000, two new building transactions reported on private terms” the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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