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Tuesday, 31 August 10
CAPESIZE RATES ON VOLATILE MOVEMENT


With Monday a holiday for London’s stockmarket (Bank Holiday), the dry bulk market took a breather before presenting ship owners and charterers its newest trends this week. But, if one takes into account the market’s behavior during the previous week, it’s obvious that as far as capesize owners are concerned, volatility is the name of the game. Capesize rates rose seven percent Monday but quickly recorded an eight percent decline on Wednesday, with charterers digging in their heels and causing rates to finally decline after practically a month on the rise. According to the latest weekly report by Commodore Research & Analysis, “Capesize spot chartering activity remained largely on par with the previous week. 24 iron ore fixtures were reported last week, a decrease from 28 iron ore fixtures reported during the previous week. The 24 fixtures is a firm amount - but down sharply from 36 ore fixtures seen during the week ending August 13. 18 of last week’s ore fixtures were for capesize vessels, the same amount reported during the week ending August 20” the report said.

Commenting on the general state of the market, the report noted that “last week’s low level of spot chartering activity is a cause for concern. Freight rates were able to remain relatively steady despite the decline but will likely be unable to hold steady this week if chartering activity does not increase. A healthy amount of period fixtures, however, continue to come to the market. We are in the thick of the dreaded second half of 2010 (dreaded due to the massive amount of newbuildings that were pegged to be on the water during this time) but dry bulk freight rates are well above where a large part of the market had expected them to be.

A steady supply of newbuilding deliveries continues to be delivered however. In addition, both near-term spot iron ore prices and Chinese steel prices show signs of possibly decreasing. Iron ore and Chinese steel prices had been increasing moderately since the middle of July but finally have reversed their rise. It is too early to determine whether prices are simply taking a breather or are poised to decrease” Commodore mentioned.

Another issue affecting freight rates is the recent Indian iron ore mess. India’s central government has voiced objections to the ongoing iron ore export ban in the southwestern state of Karnataka - but so far no official action has been taken to eliminate the ban. According to the central government, the ability to restrict exports is a power reserved solely for the central government and not for the states. India’s central government has conceded that state governments have the power to restrict illegal mining, however, but the central government views a refusal to issue mineral dispatch permits as unconstitutional. In recent weeks, Karnataka has stopped issuing mineral dispatch permits to transport iron ore not only to exporters but also to domestic steel mills. This has contributed to a relatively low volume of iron ore currently being exported from India (India is also at the tail end of monsoon season which has also led to a low volume of exports). The export ban has caused Chinese iron ore buyers (the vast majority of Indian iron ore exports are sent to China) to source a much larger amount of their imported iron ore from suppliers in Australia and Brazil. Indian steel mills have also had difficulty securing iron ore, with some mills expecting steel output to possibly be affected.

Late last week, however, the Karnataka government agree to issue dispatch permits to transport Karnataka-produced iron ore to domestic steel mills in Goa. The Karnataka government has been adamant that locally produced iron ore is not to be exported.

Going forward, “there are no immediate signs pointing to a swift repeal of the export ban. The central government in India, at times, is unable to quickly pass legislation and it seems likely that their “objections” to the export ban will remain as just that - objections - for at the very least the next week. In the short-term, the Karnataka iron ore export ban will continue to force Chinese iron ore buyers to import more of their ore from Brazil and Australia. This will lend support to capesize rates as most Brazilian and Australian ore shipments are carried on capesize vessels” Commodore concludes.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou & Hellenic Shipping



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