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Monday, 30 August 10
DRY BULK MARKET STABILIZES, ALBEIT AT A FALLING NOTE


The dry bulk market’s leading benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the week at 2712 points, a marginal weekly loss of 1.6% or 44 points versus the previous week. As a result, August’s monthly average is now at 2417 points, significantly improved over last month’s average of 1910 points. According to a weekly report prepared by N. Cotzias Shipping Group, the BDI is set to increase before year end and possibly peak beyond the 5,500 points mark. “For this increase to be effective some resistance levels have to be met and surpassed and some other conditions have to be met”. Commenting on this week’s performance of the market, the Piraeus-based shipbroker said that it was a mixed feeling week, a breather. “The larger capes and panamaxes suffered minor losses and the smaller supramaxes and handymaxes posted minor gains. Overall the general index fell and the overall sentiment is that the overwhelming increased was too rapid and had to correct somehow. Still there are many ships chasing lesser/fewer cargoes and this imbalance of the market is self]implicated and will sooner become far worse than better. Have owners been shooting at their own feet? Definitely yes!” the broker mentioned.

Still, the shipping markets seem to have regained a great share of the heavy losses encountered during the first two months of this summer period and “before August says “kalo xeimona” - a Greek traditional wish for a pleasant winter - to us, we will be in a positive situation where we recovered a great percentage share of the heavy losses in both the indices and actual daily freight hire. The shipping markets were greatly assisted, by the added momentum that were offered in the past 2 weeks by the Capes and the Supramaxes. However the underlying global market fundamentals still pose a great degree of an uncertainty level although overall the picture looks much better than 2 months ago. China has imposed their game rules in the iron/ore pricing agreement, and the country’s size and import appetite on its own have such great weight that they can and have brought the per tone prices to the desired levels. Russian grain exports embargo/ban went into action as from the 15th August until 31st December 2010, and the Russian exports will be limited to 60]65 million tones for 2010 as opposed to 97 million tones for 2009. This is a serious quantity reduction that will be needed to be shipped from alternative locations and this will definitely act positively on shipping freights as the per ton mile cost will increase. A notable slowdown in period and time charter fixtures was noticeable this week and a total of only 84 fixtures were recorded compared with 112 of last week” Cotzias said.

Meanwhile, in a separate report by shipbrokers Golden Destiny, last week ended with 29 sales reported in the secondhand and demolition market. The highest activity has been recorded in the newbuilding market with 48 orders reported in total. “The secondhand market has been marked with almost 52.17% negative yearly change with 11 vessels reported to have changed hands this week equalling a total amount of money invested around $185,800,000. In the demolition market, 18 vessels have been headed to the scrap yards of total deadweight 356,048 tons, while in 2009 14 vessels reported for scrap indicating a positive yearly change of around 28.5%. In the newbuilding market, 48 vessels reported to have been ordered equalling a total deadweight around 4,490,500 tons. The dry sector has held the largest share of newbuilding contracts, equalling a total deadweight of 2,154,500 tons, with kamsarmaxes being the most popular vessel type. The Greek presence has been noticed this week in the secondhand market with 2 transactions, one in the handysize bulkcarrier sector and one in the MR tanker sector, and in the newbuilding market with 5 transactions, 1 in the kamsarmax bulkcarrier sector, 2 in the handysize bulkcarrier sector and 2 in the container handy sector. The cumulative amount invested by Greeks can be calculated only in the secondhand market, which was $ 11,000,000 , since in the newbuilding market the relevant information has not been disclosed” Golden Destiny concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou / Hellenic Shipping



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