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Tuesday, 17 August 10
HANDIES AND SUPRAS WOKE UP AGAIN AFTER SEVERAL WEEKS OF LETHARGY - BRS


A spectacular increase in Cape size rates pushed the BDI up more than 20% this week, with demand for prompt tonnage in the Pacific causing a major spike in earnings.

While all four bulk segments recorded an increase, the improvement in rates for the large ships finally took the Cape 4TC average over the Panamax 4TC again.  Developments in the coal and grain sectors raised the possibility of changing trade patterns later in the year. Indonesia announced it would miss 2010 coal production targets after heavy rains disrupted mining. Output is now predicted to remain unchanged from 2009, at 300m tons instead of the projected 320m tons. Meanwhile Russia’s drought, and its subsequent ban on grain exports until December, is expected to result in greater foreign sales of US grain, with producers already reporting a surge in enquiry. 

Supramax/Handy
Handies and Supras woke up again after several weeks of lethargy, mainly due to the anticipated large volume of grain exports out of the US. Most activity concerned short period, which shows the extreme nervousness of charterers who are unwilling to commit beyond a few months. All in all, short period rates went up to US$22/23,000 irrespective of delivery. South America also saw some activity with spot rates reaching close to US$30,000 dop WAF for trip east. This also tightened the market for tonnage open India but ships open there are still abundant and one can still see ballasters going south. In the Pacific, coal shipments are in short supply prompting spot rates to hover in the region of US$18-19,000

Panamax
The Panamax market firmed this week at a steady pace driven by an overall bullish sentiment which pushed the 4TC average up by US$2,000 to close the week at US$23,000 per day. The biggest increase came from Asia where the NOPAC and China/Indo/China routes gained US$3,000 to end at $22,000 per day on Friday. Short period rates followed the trend even though the paper market slowed during the week. Standard LME were getting $26/26,500 per day delivery North China for short period, up from US$24,500 a week ago.  In the Atlantic, the physical market remained very slow all week but again sentiment kept rates stable. Russia’s ban on wheat export added some agitation in the market. One expects a firm and active grain season out of the USG/USEC area. The TA round voyage ended the week at a tick below US$25,000 per day. 

Capesize 
A very strong week for the Capesize market, with the four time charter average leaping from US$18,400 to just short of US$30,000 by Friday, mainly due to prompt fixing by the major iron ore producers. All routes showed improvements although West Australia –  China showed the biggest increase with US$11.40 reported by the end of the week. In the paper market, rates for September and October rose to US$30,000 per day, and 4Q even traded up to US$33,000 mid week before falling back to just under US$30,000. The pace could not last however and Monday saw the 4TC plateau, falling back by a minor US$11.  
Source: BRS



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