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Thursday, 05 August 10
DRY BULK LOOKING TO CHINA FOR A NEW RALLY, BUT INDIA COULD BE THIS YEAR'S SURPRISE


The dry bulk market’s rebound has hit a “wall” this week, with the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ending its 12-day upwards momentum, retreating marginally both on Tuesday and yesterday. The BDI now stands at 1,957 points, down by 7 points or 0.36 percent on a daily basis. Even the panamax segment which had behaved in a healthier manner during these past couple of weeks didn’t manage to edge away, losing yesterday 2.18 percent, with daily average rates for panamax vessels standing at $20,947. On the bright side, the capesize market which had plunged to near break-even levels, below the $10,000 daily mark, continued its positive momentum , rising yesterday by 2.48 percent, with rates now standing at $15,369.

Commenting on the capesize market, the latest weekly report from shipbroker Fearnley’s said that “any enthusiasm visible in the market at the end of last week was washed away as this week opened. The marginal improvements in the Pacific quickly evaporated and fixtures were being concluded in the mid USD 6.00 level after a high of USD 7.00. The front haul activity also was thin, with no fixtures reported until today and a number of early vessels have been fixed at Index levels. This has given the market some faith back and the most recent fixture in the West Australia/China leg is now back at USD 7. 00, and owners also feeling more confident on the front haul leg. Having said this there are still ballasters showing prompt ETAs in Brazil, with little hope of spot cargos becoming available. The week has been quiet on the period front with no fixtures reported”.

Regarding the panamax market, Fearnley’s noted that last week ended quiet, howewer the trend was slowly upwards in both basins. “Atlantic showed more activity and some charterers even struggled to cover prompt requirements. Whilst in Pacific more tonnage coming prompt with limited cargoes to support, looks more uncertain. Owners want to return to Atlantic as activity looks better on short term there. Front haul voyages fixed at USD 31,000 + while TAs reached almost USD 23,000. Pacific rounds under pressure this week, but still concluded around USD 18,000, wheras backhaul still at moderat USD 12,500. Short period marked in Pacific remain quite firm at levels around USD 24,500 for LME´s for 3/5-4/6 months” the broker concluded.

Meanwhile, the latest weekly report by George Moundreas said that the negative impact by the global economical developments in the dry bulk markets is manageable. “The reason for this is that tonnage demand will continue to be supported by old factors like Chinese iron ore imports, which will continue to be higher this year as well, despite any short term volatility, as well as newer factors like China’s coal imports, but most importantly India’s coal imports, which this year alone could very well increase by 250%. In a worldwide level, despite the slowdown, sea transportation of just those two commodities (coal and iron ore) is expected to increase during this year by at least 130 million tons, compared to 2009. This equates to an additional capacity of 100-120 capesize vessel” said the report, compiled by financial analyst George Grigoriadis. To certify that, Brazilian mining giant recently confirmed that the Chinese economy will accelerate its pace during the fourth quarter of the year, with an increase of steel production, while the same is likely to happen with the other major economies for the dry bulk industry, the US and the EU.
Source:
Nikos Roussanoglou / Hellenic Shipping



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