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Saturday, 17 July 10
BULLISH OUTLOOK FOR COKING COAL - MINING MX & HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Mining Mx reported that, the coking coal market has better long-term fundamentals than the iron ore market, according to a recent research report by financial institution MF Global. The report highlighted the potential of Mozambique and Mongolia to be “potential game changers” on the supply side - but only from 2015 and “conditional on infrastructure”.
As a result of its concern over the provision of the required infrastructure, MF Global has turned bearish on prospects for Australian junior Riversdale Mining which is developing two major coking coal projects near Tete in Mozambique.
These are the Benga project, in which Indian steel group Tata holds a 35% stake, and the Zambeze project, in which Chinese group Wuhan Iron and Steel Corporation has just agreed to buy a 40% stake.
Riversdale has also struck a logistics partnership agreement with China Communications Construction Company.
This company will carry out a “mine to ship logistics” study into the export of large volumes of coal from Mozambique, which at present suffers severe limitations on its rail and port infrastructure.
On Thursday, Riversdale announced a capital raising of A$337m at a fixed offer price of A$9.40 a share to accelerate the development of stages two and three of the Benga project.
Riversdale chairman Michael O’ Keeffe said the accelerated logistics development also included “Riversdale’s commitment to upgrading the existing coal terminal at Beira, for which Riversdale has entered into a memorandum of understanding with Vale and the Mozambique rail and port authority CFM.”
MF Global has put out a sell recommendation on Riversdale, on the grounds that the market “is expecting too much too soon”.
The firm said: “The risk/reward profile on offer is actually about long-term infrastructure development and financing.
“Given the recent share price moves, we believe the market is already pricing in quite an optimistic outcome on this front, particularly when compared to a number of producing companies where resource optionality isn’t being valued at all.
“The infrastructure demands are challenging and we expect disappointments. Riversdale’s production targets are conditional upon a significant amount of infrastructure being developed and allocations being received.
“Investors without a very long-time horizon and specialist interest in development risk would be best taking profits above $10.”
MF Global said the coking coal market appeared more balanced than iron ore, because China was not such a major factor.
The firm said: “Japan is the largest destination (35%) followed by India (20%), China (10%) and Europe (10%).
“The more balanced spread is positive when compared to the concentrated risk of the iron ore market, particularly if there is to be a more balanced global economy in 2010.
“In the longer term, demand will be driven by India and Brazil which are long (on) iron ore but short coking coal. “
Turning to the supply side, MF Global pointed out this was dominated at present by Australia which accounted for 70% of the seaborne trade in coking coal. However, supply growth from that country was constrained by logistics problems.
About 85% of the metallurgical coal exports from Australia are shipped from the state of Queensland, but MF Global pointed out port capacity has been operating at around 70% to 80% for the past five years.
The report stated: “In Queensland, the rail network is underdeveloped and congestions are frequent. System underperformance has resulted in lost sales and increased demurrage. “The queues of ships that can sometimes stretch as long as 70 in number and can wait for over a month to be loaded, are nearly always caused by rail congestion rather than the port facility itself.”
Source: Mining Mx / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 29 July 10
GOVT TOO OPTIMISTIC ON IRON, COAL PRICE
Federal government forecasts of continued strength in iron ore and coal prices, which underpin revenue expectations for the proposed new mining tax, ...
Thursday, 29 July 10
BALTIC INDEXES ARE POSITIVE SINCE A FEW DAYS
Handy
Baltic indexes are positive since a few days which could mean that markets have bottomed out (as we correctly predicted in our report of las ...
Wednesday, 28 July 10
INDONESIA'S MERUKH SECURES US$200 MLN INVESTMENT FROM SAN MIGUEL
Trading Market Reported that, Indonesian mining company Merukh Enterprises said it has secured an investment commitment of US$200 million from the P ...
Wednesday, 28 July 10
RIZAL RISJAD MAY OWN 10% BERAU ENERGY
Rizal Risjad, son of Indonesian tycoon Ibrahim Risjad, might own 10% stakes in PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU), parent company of Indonesia's fifth ...
Wednesday, 28 July 10
UNUSUAL RAINS TO HIT COAL EXPORTS
COALspot.com: Heavy rains in South and East Kalimantan have compelled coal exporters to delay or cancel coal exports. PT Bayan and PT. TIA hav ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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