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Tuesday, 06 July 10
INCREASE IN DRY BULK SPOT FIXTURES UNABLE TO BOOST RATES, LOSING STREAK CONTINUES


Yet another week began on a negative note for the dry bulk shipping market, with the Baltic Dry Index posting its 28th straight losing daily session, retreating Monday by 2.81 percent, down to 2,216 points. The Baltic's capesize index (BCI) lost 1.87 percent, with average earnings falling to $23,012. The Panamax index (BPI) was down by an additional 3.96 percent, its lowest since the previous October, with panamaxes now earning $18,941.

During the previous week, a total of 27 ore fixtures were reported, an increase from 20 ore fixtures reported during the previous week. 20 of last week’s  27 iron ore fixtures were for Capesize vessels. “Resilient Chinese iron ore demand and continued robust Asian thermal coal demand allowed Capesize rates to basically hold steady. Panamax rates decreased significantly, however, partially due to the imbalance in the Capesize/Panamax ratio. One week ago Panamax rates were slightly higher than Capesize rates. This imbalance has begun to correct itself” said Commodore Research in its latest weekly report.

Commenting on the current state of the market, the report stated that spot chartering activity has increased moderately from a week ago. Asian thermal coal demand remains robust and a surge in Indian and Chinese thermal coal fixtures was evident in the market last week. Spot iron ore demand also remains firm, despite a lingering fear that Chinese real estate construction is about to significantly decrease. Grain fixtures remain relatively firm as well, with a large amount of spot grain fixtures continuing to be chartered to load in South America.

“What cannot be ignored, however, is that Chinese steel production is slowing down (so far we believe the slowdown is only temporary). Recent estimates suggest that
daily Chinese steel production has been ranging somewhere between the 1.75 to 1.80 million ton level (daily Chinese steel production averaged approximately 1.81mt in May).

Despite the small decline in steel production, a moderate amount of iron ore fixtures continue to be fixed in the market and Chinese iron ore and steel stockpiles have remained relatively steady. Going forward, the strength of the dry bulk market will continue to be influenced by Chinese steel production” Commodore said.

Another factor which could add more pressure to the market, is a decline in port congestion. Approximately 155 vessels are currently anchored outside Australian ports, 5 less than a week ago. Approximately 45 vessels are anchored outside Brazilian ports, 15 less than a week ago. Of the 200 vessels congested outside of Australian and Brazilian ports, about 115 of them are Capesize vessels. In comparison, 125 Capesize vessels were anchored outside of Australian and Brazilian ports a week ago. The decline in Capesize congestion at Australian and Brazilian ports has contributed to Capesize rates coming under pressure while Capesize chartering activity has remained firm.

Simultaneously, a warmer than usual weather in northeastern China has contributed to China’s robust demand for thermal coal. According to Commodore “temperatures in Jilin and Liaoning provinces have been above 30 degrees celsius (86 degrees fahrenheit) for much of the last four weeks, with temperatures reaching 33 degrees celsius (91 degrees fahrenheit) on June 8, about three weeks earlier than expected. As a result of the warmer weather in the northeast and overall strong coal demand throughout China, the Ministry of Railways has begun to prioritize thermal coal railingIn the upcoming months, Chinese thermal coal demand is expected to remain strong and power shortages are expected to occur throughout China. A need to divert power to Shanghai to ensure that the Shanghai Expo continues to operate smoothly is also putting pressure on domestic and imported supplies of thermal coal.

Zhejiang, Anhui, and Jiangsu provinces, which share the eastern power grid with Shanghai, will likely experience sporadic power shortages. Power shortages are also expected in Hebei province. An increase in Chinese hydropower production, however, continues to put pressure on Chinese thermal coal demand as the drought in the southwest (which had resulted in a significant decline in hydropower production) continues to improve. The increase in hydropower production, though, has been partially offset by the warmer than usual weather in northeastern China” the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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