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Thursday, 01 July 10
HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS POLL: THE BDI WILL STAY ABOVE 3,000 POINTS IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2010


When Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide prepared June’s poll asking readers about where do they think that the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) will range during the second half of the year, almost nothing indicated that the dry bulk industry’s main benchmark would record its biggest fall in almost five years. Still, the 4,118 voters appeared to be on the positive side, with 45,4% of them answering that the index will range between 3,000 and 4,000 points. Out of those, 22.9% or 943 votes were for the 3,000-3,500 limit, while an additional 22.5% or 926 votes were a bit more optimistic, placind the index at the range of 3,500 and 4,000 points.

Even more positive on the dry bulk market’s prospects were those 892 voters (21.7%) who predicted that the freight market will stay above 4,000 points, not to mention the overly optimistic who said it will surpass even the 4,500 point mark. They amounted to 467 or 11.3%. On the negative side were those 890 people (21.6%) who said that the market will stay within today’s range of between 2,500 and 3,000 points.

Of course, since the beginning of the week, the BDI has posted further declines, even if they appear to be rather stabilized. The index ended yesterday’s session at 2,406 points, down by 41, but the Capesize market was once again at a standstill, unchanged in the past couple of days. The bulk of the fall was recorded in the panamax segment of the market, with the Panamax Index retreating by 127 points to 2,748.

According to a report from Arctic Securites, quoted by Bloomberg, “imports of coal and iron ore by China, the world’s biggest user of the commodities, fell for two consecutive months, customs data show. Grain shipments from South America slowed leaving shipping lines with “the full force of vessel supply,” Martin Sommerseth Jaer and Erik Nikolai Stavseth, Oslo-based analysts with Arctic Securities ASA, said. “Everything together is contributing to it free falling,” said Andrew Dawson, a broker with Freight Investor Services in London. The “Chinese don’t seem to have the appetite for ore. Grain has been weaker than expected and coal in the Atlantic has not been as strong as previous years.”

In a separate report on the iron ore and steel market, Commodore Research said that iron ore demand has remained firm as expected, but spot ore prices and imports could be poised to briefly decline. Chinese steel mills have slowly begun to cut steel production in an attempt to reverse the steady decline in steel prices. Steel production in China is not expected to collapse by any means but we do expect it will decrease moderately in the short-term. The decrease in steel production and related iron ore demand will put pressure on dry bulk freight rates. It remains to be seen if robust Asian thermal coal demand and firm global grain demand will be able to compensate for the expected short-term decline in Chinese iron ore demand” the report noted.

At the same time, spot Indian iron ore with a 63.5% iron content is currently selling for approximately $130/ton FOB, an increase of $5 (4%) from a month ago. Compared with the end of last week, however, spot prices are down by $4 (-3%). Spot iron ore prices had been firming throughout much of June and ore fixtures in the dry bulk market have remained relatively firm - but the recent fall in iron ore prices in troubling. Chinese steel mills have been cutting production in order to reverse the steady fall of steel prices.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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