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Tuesday, 29 June 10
DRY BULK'S DOWNFALL FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF STABILIZATION


Although the dry bulk market has begun the week where it left off, that is on a downward note, brokers and charterers appear to be on the consensus that the falling pattern set since late May, might be coming to a halt. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was down by 19 points to 2,482, but the industry’s benchmark, the capesize segment of the market retreated by just one point, virtually unchanged .

The BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) is again trading at 2716 points, way lower than the Panamax index, which stands at 2977. As brokers have pointed out in the past, every time this pattern appears, the market looks set for a rebound.

According to the latest weekly report by Commodore Research & Analysis, dry bulk rates appear to be finally finding support.

“Capesize rates fell 18% week-on-week but reversed their fall by the end of the week due to moderate iron ore demand from China. 20 vessels were reportedly fixed to export iron ore, 3 less than the previous week. 13 of the ore fixtures were for Capesize vessels; a large amount of Capes also continue to be fixed to ship coal to buyers in Asia and Europe. Panamax freight rates have been able to find the most support due to firm European coal demand, robust Asian thermal coal demand, and moderate global grain demand.

Freight rates for the two smallest vessels continued to come under moderate pressure. With iron ore and coal demand still firm, and Supramax and Panamax rates basically on par with Capesize rates, Capesize rates could soon find more support Capesize rates are currently averaging $24,283/day, a decrease of $5,215 (-18%) from the previous week. Panamax rates are averaging $24,472/day, an increase of $530 (2%). Supramax rates are now averaging $22,192/day, a decrease of $1,151 (-5%). Handysize rates are averaging $17,228/day, a decrease of $944 (-5%)” said the report.

It went on to say that as a whole, dry bulk freight rates have fallen for twenty consecutive index days but appear to be finally finding support. Capesize rates managed to reverse their epic fall and increased slightly on Friday, with rates ending the week averaging $24,283/day. It is remarkable the difference a few weeks can make, as Capesize rates were averaging $55,010/day just three weeks ago. Since that time, Chinese steel prices have decreased moderately - but spot iron ore prices have been actually increasing and iron ore fixtures have remained firm. Period activity has decreased significantly, however, with only 52 period deals reported in the first four weeks of this month, 70 fewer deals than the 122 period deals fixed in the first four weeks of May.

The market has been influenced by negative sentiment brought on by fears of a slowdown in Chinese real estate construction. Steel production in China will likely decline moderately this month as steel mills respond to a steady decrease in steel prices - but a large decrease in production is not expected. Thermal coal demand in China and throughout Asia remains firm and will likely stay robust” concluded Commodore.

Meanwhile, in a separate report, shipbroker BRS (Barry Rogliano Salles) mentioned that the decline in dry bulk rates slowed this week and there was talk of the market bottoming out. “Explaining some of the recent softness, China confirmed a 19% fall in coal imports for May due mainly to high product and freight prices. Overall the BDI lost 7% week-on-week. Regardless, China’s National Energy Agency (NEA) predicted the country could overtake the US as the world’s largest energy consumer this year. According to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics, China consumed 3.02bn tons of coal, 380m tons of crude oil, 88bn cbm of natural gas and 3.7trn kWh of electricity in 2009. If its consumption growth rate remains stable at around 8.9% (the average growth rate between 2000-2009), the country could consume 8bn tons of coal by 2020, said the NEA. China has been the second largest global energy consumer since 2002” said BRS.

Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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